By David Stanway

SHANGHAI (Reuters). The world’s largest greenhouse gas producers gather in Glasgow on Sunday. They are there to devise plans and raise funds for clean energy. However, the leader of the largest greenhouse gas emitters in the world won’t attend.

China’s President Xi Jinping is expected to be absent from the negotiations, which could mean that the biggest CO2 emitter in the world has decided not to make any concessions at the U.N. COP26 summit in Scotland.

China is likely to be represented instead by Zhao Yingmin, vice-environment Minister, and veteran XieZhenhua who were reappointed earlier in the year as top climate envoy after a 3-year hiatus.

Li Shuo (senior climate advisor at Greenpeace Beijing) stated that “One thing’s clear.” “COP26 requires high-level support both from China and other emitters.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the head of India’s third largest source of climate-warming emission. He has committed to participating in the COP26 Summit, which will be held from Oct. 31 until Nov. 12. He will be under pressure by summit organisers, like other leaders to reduce emissions faster and establish a date for reaching carbon neutrality – a goal set last year surprise to Xi at 2060.

According to an environmental consultant, China is unlikely to bow to international pressure to achieve more ambitious goals. This comes as China struggles with its crippling energy shortage. According to the consultant speaking under anonymity due to the sensitive nature, Beijing has “already reached its maximum”, he said.

Analysts and diplomatic sources have said that few expected Xi, despite there not being an official announcement. Since late 2019’s COVID-19 pandemic, Xi missed numerous high-profile international summits and didn’t even attend China’s Kunming Global Biodiversity Conference.

They stated that Xi is unlikely to give his physical presence – a video appearance still remains a possibility – at a meeting that has little prospect of any meaningful breakthrough.

China and India have made it clear that they aren’t content with making concessions. They want to ensure a strong financial deal to allow richer countries to honor their Paris Agreement promise to fund $100 billion per annum to pay climate adaptation, and to transfer clean technology to the developing world. In 2015, Xi was present at the Paris Summit.

DOMESTIC CONCERNS

Xi, although he hasn’t been outside China since the pandemics, has announced three important climate changes on an international level.

In September 2020, he made an unexpected net zero pledge in a video address before the United Nations General Assembly. The announcement incited enterprises and other industry sectors to come up with their own netzero plans.

In a April message, Xi stated that China will begin cutting its coal consumption by 2026. He also used the UNGA this year to declare an end to all overseas coal finance, which was a key point of contention.

China, like India, has come under increasing pressure to increase its “nationally determined contributions (NDCs),” on climate change. These are expected to be released before the Glasgow talks start.

Revisions should, however, focus more on actualizing the goals that were already set, than making them even more ambitious.

China insists that it is pursuing its national priorities in climate change policy. This will not mean that they are compromising its national security nor public welfare.

Ma Jun is the director of Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs. This non-governmental group based in Beijing monitors corporate polluting and greenhouse gas emissions and says China faces enough climate issues and that there’s little to no room to improve its situation.

“With all these headwinds, and all the promises made to us, it’s important that we take stock of our situation and consolidate,” said he.

He said, “It doesn’t suffice to write these (commitments),” he continued. These (commitments) must be translated into concrete actions.