According to Iran’s top negotiator, talks will be resumed with six other world powers by November 31. This is in an effort to revive 2015 nuclear agreement that removed sanctions from the Islamic Republic and allowed for an end to Iran’s nuclear program. 

“Had a very serious & constructive dialogue with @enriquemora_ on the essential elements for successful negotiations. After meeting with EU officials in Brussels, Ali Bagheri Kani, the Deputy Foreign Minister, wrote via Twitter that we had agreed to commence negotiations before November.

Experts warn that if an agreement is possible, it’s still far off.

As Iran ramps up its nuclear activity, it is causing tensions with the West. The Iranian government claims that the development are peaceful, while the Director-General of the U.N. Atom Energy Watchdog Rafael Grossi stated in October that Iran has enough material for a nuclear bomb.

The June election by Ebrahim Raisi, an anti-Western and hardline cleric, halted talks under Joe Biden. This was seen as a delayed tactic to present a stronger position.

“I don’t think there will be an agreement soon because of Iran’s delaying tactics, messaging from Tehran, and the new administration clearly indicates that they intend to take a harder line and a more difficult negotiating position,” stated Sanam Vakil (deputy head, Middle East North Africa Program at Chatham House).

Vakil noted that Kani, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, has also refused to meet the E3 — the foreign ministers of Germany, France and the U.K. — in a coordinated manner, “suggesting that he is trying to sow divisions alongside the delaying tactics that we have witnessed over the past few months.”

She said, “I anticipate that the negotiations would take a few months and that we should be ready that those negotiations might never see the final resumption.”

Eurasia Group is a political risk consultancy. They stated that it believes “a revival in the Iran nuclear deal is unlikely next year” and that Iran’s nuclear program will likely make the 2015 agreement irrelevant. 

It had previously considered a possible deal for next year more likely due to Iran’s economic woes and need to have sanctions lifted. Trump, the former President of the United States withdrew in 2018 from the Obama-era agreement and placed harsh sanctions against Iran. This has caused inflation to soar and its currency to plummet. 

Eurasia analysts stated that Iran’s intransigence continues and its nuke program accelerates, making it hard for forward-leaning negotiators not to revive the agreement next January. 

The State Department said earlier this month it wants negotiations to resume as soon as possible. It added that the White House has “made it clear that diplomacy can fail” and that they are “prepared to explore other options.” However, it didn’t specify which options.

Iran’s constant reduction of compliance with the nuclear deal (also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) has included increasing uranium stockpiling and enrichment levels far beyond the parameters set out in the JCPOAAnd to a point that many in the international community say is alarming 

Tehran maintains its sovereignty and insists its actions can be reversed, if the U.S. removes its sanctions. The Biden administration claims it is open to negotiating again, but won’t lift sanctions until Iran corrects their JCPOA breach.

There are far more implications to Iran’s delay than that of the deal. Iran will reduce its “breakout period” for bomb-building capabilities to below three months. Israel’s likelihood of launching sabotage attack is higher. Both the U.S. (and its allies) will need to consider additional sanctions, or other deterrent actions. This could push both nations further into confrontation.