By Antoni Slodkowski

TOKYO, Reuters – Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which controls the majority of Japan’s votes, could lose support in Sunday’s general elections, according to polls. This would make Fumio, the new leader, a temporary prime minister, and potentially trigger a return back to political uncertainty.

LDP has been Japan’s ruling party for the majority of postwar Japan. Its coalition with Komeito will ensure that it remains in power, even though Komeito is likely to drop seats from parliament’s lower house.

Kishida is a former banker, who failed to invigorate voters by calling for an equitable “new capitalism”. He has set a coalition goal for a majority of 233 seats within the lower chamber (465 seats), well below 276 held by LDP before the election.

It is still up to the LDP whether it can hold onto its majority. Kishida is only weeks in to his job and a lackluster result could cause a party push to remove him before next year’s election to the upper house.

It could also lead to policy uncertainty.

Tomoaki Iwai (political science professor, Nihon University) said that a weak performance for the LDP might also allow the Komeito to have more influence, breaking with conservative security policies favoured by the LDP’s right-wing.

According to a poll conducted by Yomiuri Daily, the LDP was close to winning the majority. However, it may not be enough. A poll done by Asahi daily in recent weeks predicted that the LDP would lose seats, but it came in significantly higher than 233.

Opposition parties are rare in their ability to successfully coordinate candidates across large numbers of districts.

“The extraordinary collaboration of the opposition in single-seat district elections is impressive. The result is that voters that were split previously between multiple candidates will now be cast for one person, which gives the opposition a real chance to defeat the LDP,” Iwai said.

The key to success is turning your back

Sunday’s election was the most unexpected since Shinzo abe’s LDP victory under Shinzo Abe 2012, which brought the LDP back to power. It also ended many years of policy paralysis due to revolving doors premiers.

After 20 months of economic slowdown and restrictions imposed by the pandemic, voters are dissatisfied with the ruling bloc. Yoshihide Sug was elected to succeed Abe, who had fallen ill last year and was unable to continue due the widespread criticism of his handling.

It may also have been a mistake by the party choosing Kishida as Suga’s successor, instead of Taro Kono (from its liberal wings).

The opposition has also failed to gain traction, unfortunately. Yukio Edano (leader of the largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan) is even lower than Kishida’s suitability ratings.

The outcome of this election is uncertain with 40% still undecided, and the expected lowest turnout in post-war years.

LDP was defeated in special elections for the upper house in Shizuoka southwest of Tokyo. This was despite Kishida’s two visits to try and win over voters.

Kishida struggled to understand how his economic plan – to decrease the wealth gap- is different from Abe and Suga’s Abenomics remedy, which uses massive monetary or fiscal stimuli to revive the economy that has been in decline.

Abe’s conservative security policies are being challenged by Abe, who has called for doubled defence spending while keeping an eye on China.

Akira Amari, a party heavyweight and leader of the LDP was appointed by Kishida as its powerful Secretary General. Amari has tried to get Japan’s nuclear power plant restarted – an action opposed by 40%.

Osaka, which is the third-largest and most important city in Japan, and Nagoya, which are the manufacturing capital of Nagoya, Tokyo and Tokyo, are key battlegrounds. Former and current LDP ministers may be vulnerable to an opposition challenge.

Koichi Nakano, Sophia University’s political science professor, said that the Coalition enjoyed all structural advantages during the election. However, it ultimately hinged on turnout. He noted that the Opposition has a higher turnout.

Recent polls indicate that turnout in 2014 will rise slightly from the 52.66% postwar record low.

Nakano said that the opposition parties might be able to win many districts in a single district if turnout is higher than the 60s.