Aaron Sheldrick & Sudarshan Varadhan

UDANGUDI (India/Tokyo) – Workers work on a pier that carries a conveyor belt. It runs for a mile along the Indian Ocean, where ships can unload large coal cargoes.

This belt will transport millions of tonnes each year of coal to a huge power plant a few kilometres away. It will produce power for more than 70million people living in India’s Tamil Nadu State.

According to the Udangudi plant, it is among nearly 200 new coal-fired power plants in Asia. It includes 95 stations in China and 28 in India, as well as 23 in Indonesia.

The new fleet will continue to produce climate-warming emission for many decades. It is an indication of the challenges that world leaders are facing when they meet in Glasgow for climate negotiations. They hope to end the use of coal as a power source.

When countries attempt to address climate change, coal is one of their many differences.

To reduce their carbon emissions, many industrialized countries have shut down coal-fired power plants over the years. In the United States, 301 plants have been retired since 2000.

Asia has 60% of the world’s population. However, as Asia develops rapidly, its coal consumption is rising rather than falling.

GEM reports that more than 90% are found in Asia.

Tamil Nadu in India is the second most industrialized and top-producing state for renewable energy. It is building some of the largest coal-fired power plants in India.

According to Reuters, a top official from Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corp said that “We can’t depend only on solar and wind.”

He stated, “You can have the cake and coal with an icing solar,” but declined to identify himself because he was not authorized to address media.

Graphic: Coal-fired power plants in operation, construction and in permit phase by country https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/egvbkmlrlpq/CoalFiredPowerByTop20Country.png

COAL HOOKING

Even with dramatic increases in renewable energy production, the global economy is still dependent on coal to generate electricity. Asia has twice as much coal in the power mix than the world average, especially with rapidly growing economies like India.

The Statistical Review of World Energy by BP (NYSE) revealed that more than 35% of global power was generated from coal. About 25% of the world’s power came from, with 16% coming from hydro dams and 10% coming from nuclear. The remaining 12% was from renewable sources like wind and solar.

Coal demand for this year’s is expected to set a new high, driving up prices and contributing to an international scramble for fuel.

A record amount of coal is being consumed, which will lead to increased emissions in 2021. This follows a decline in the last year when there were restrictions on movements for billions of people in order to reduce the pandemic.

Although some new coal plants are replacing older more polluting stations in the area, they all will contribute to overall emissions.

Lauri Myllyvirta (lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy & Clear Air) stated that “the completion of the capacity which is currently under construction in these nations will drive up coal consumption and emissions.”

GEM estimates that the CO2 emissions alone from new plants will reach 28 billion tonnes in their 30 year lifespans.

This is not too far from the 32 billion tonnes total global CO2 emissions in 2020. According to BP this highlights how difficult it will be to achieve meaningful climate change progress for those leaders gathering in Glasgow, including Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi.

In a recent interview with Reuters, Rameshwar Prasad Gupta stated that India had reached its targets of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. With that, coal would also fall – though it is not possible to abolish.

“Look, each country has its strengths. Gupta stated that coal is a resource we can rely on.

“We believe that, once you commit to reducing carbon intensity (or any other targets), it will have an effect… It is up to us to decide whether it’s done in coal or some other place.”

Anil Swarup (a former Coal Secretary) said the same thing in an interview. His comments included that “Renewable Energy expansion is crucial, but coal will continue to be India’s major energy source for at least the next fifteen years, and that production should be increased to address our energy demands.”

Graphic: Number of coal-fired power plants in operation or under construction https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/dwpkrajxqvm/CoalPlantsUnderConstruction.png

CHINA CRUNCH

GEM data shows that 281 Indian coal plants are currently in operation.

China, which is the largest global coal producer, user, and consumer, dwarfs these figures. President Xi Jinping will not be attending COP26. There are more than 1000 coal plants in operation. Nearly 240 of these plans or under construction.

The combined emissions of coal plants from the second largest economy in the world will exceed all CO2 emissions in their lifetimes, according to BP data.

Graphic: Lifetime CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants by region and stage of development https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/xmvjolegxpr/LifetimeCO2CoalPlantsRegion.png

China has the largest amount of renewable energy in the world, but it is currently experiencing a severe energy crisis and has asked coal miners for more production.

This will likely increase coal consumption over the short term even though China has plans to decrease coal usage starting in 2026.

However, global coal consumption is expected to increase due to the escalating use of South and Southeast Asia where there are currently under construction projects that will boost coal-burning capacities by 17%, 26%, respectively.

Graphic: Lifetime CO2 emissions from coal plants by country https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/myvmngxmrpr/LifetimeCO2CoalPlantsbyCountry.png

THE AFTERLIFE

Even when economies are committed to decreasing emissions, coal is still a stronghold.

Japan has seven major new coal-fired power station, despite its crisis in the nuclear industry since Fukushima.

JERA is a major generator and plans to include clean-burning ammonia in its mix of coal. This will help JERA reach its carbon neutrality target by 2050.

JERA’s 4,100 megawatt Hekinan Station, which has been in operation for 30 years, is located on a Bay near Nagoya. It was once Asia’s biggest and supplies electricity to large auto manufacturers. Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE:)

Hekinan boilers, like many other power plants, rely heavily on coal from high-exporting countries such as Australia. This is a key source of income – $18 Billion in the current fiscal year. It also causes contention among allies who are pushing for ambitious emission cuts.

Scott Morrison, Australia’s Prime Minister will be attending the Glasgow talks. Resources minister Keith Pitt said that coal will continue to be in demand for many decades. This was despite being under pressure by regulators, banks and investors not to impede the growth of the industry.

Pitt stated that “While there is a market, Australia will try to fill it.”

($1 = 1.3398 Australian dollars)