Ju-min Park

OKINAWA (Reuters) – Aiko Shimajiri screams at supporters as she enters a rally at a Bullring in Okinawa’s Uruma City. The former minister of Japan’s ruling Party relishes the possibility of winning an unexpected victory this weekend.

The National Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which is likely to lose seats at Sunday’s lower-house election, will be largely because of voter dissatisfaction about the treatment of the coronavirus epidemic.

The LDP’s more aggressive security policy and tougher stance on China in Okinawa, a prefecture to the south of Okinawa, has helped it gain younger voters.

Takuji Takujiiya (41), said that China can attack us if we do not have U.S. forces, and the Self-Defense Forces Forces, SDF, present. “We are different than the generation who has been through the aftermath of war.”

Many older voters remain loyal to left-leaning parties. This is because of Okinawa’s historical role as one the most bloody battlegrounds in World War Two. Also, they oppose U.S. military installations that have 50,000 residents and take up five percent of Okinawa.

LDP calls for unprecedented double-digit increases in defense spending. It is in direct response to China’s hostile military posture against Taiwan. Taiwan lies just 110km (68 mi) away from the westmost archipelago in this strategic archipelago, which borders the East China Sea.

Experts predict that the LDP cannot reverse its projected losses solely on this issue. However, the fact that Okinawa is in the final stages of the party’s gains shows how China worries are helping to win the LDP a more prolonged game with voters.

According to the LDP, support for Okinawa’s candidate is around 40% in its internal polling data. This figure includes people between 30 and 40. Only 25% of those aged 60 and older support a communist party rival.

Opposition’s All Okinawa movement has lost steam, having dominated local politics through its anti-base message. In April, a candidate supported by the ruling bloc was elected mayor of Uruma. Last month, a strong corporate sponsor switched to the LDP.

The “All Okinawa” seat holds three of four Okinawa district seats, but polls suggest that the LDP (which holds one less) could win one more, if Shimajiri turns a close fight into a victory.

Kazuhisa Haiga (33) said, “My parents are pro-All Okinawa due to their antibase position. But I was raised with American bases so I consider them for granted.” He will vote LDP.

MESSAGE FROM THE NATIONALIST

Yoichiro Sato, an international relations professor at Ritsumeikan Japan Pacific University, stated that the Okinawa trends reflects a wider shift initiated about a century ago by Shinzo Abe (ex-premier). He mobilized younger voters through his nationalist message.

Abe reduced the voting age to 18, knowing that younger voters would be attracted by the policies he promoted. Sato said that the Conservative Agenda, Defence was one, as well as Nationalism, and added that Abe’s economic program was popular.

Japan’s Abe introduced laws that allowed its troops to combat on foreign soil. It also ended the ban on exports of military equipment and changed Japan’s war-renouncing constitution so missile strikes could be permitted on enemy territory.

The trend was confirmed by a poll conducted in Mainichi last week. 40% of Japanese under-40s backed the LDP, while 10% voted for the largest opposition party.

It is clear that economic recovery from the pandemic is top of voters’ minds. Young support of the party is driven by the view that LDP has more potential and can accomplish more in Okinawa (one of the nation’s most poor areas).

It isn’t like Okinawan youth are losing their Okinawan identity. However, if you don’t have a job here then it won’t make sense to move here. Hiroto Higa (34), was elected in July as a local LDP lawmaker.

However, China’s threat to Okinawa is much more tangible. It can be found 500 km (310 mi) south of Okinawa on Yonaguni Island. Here, Taiwanese mountains can occasionally be seen only a few days a year.

Hirotoshi Obimi 64 years old, stated that during the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996, Chinese missiles struck close to Taiwan.

“At that point, Taiwanese fish boats entered the fishing areas near Yonaguni in order to avoid China’s pressure,” he stated.

To Beijing’s dismay, Japan established a radar station in the area two decades later to collect intelligence about China.

This creates an environment of strange contrasts. Wild horses run free and large military radar towers are visible in the background. The island is home to approximately 1 700 villagers, including the 240 SDF personnel and their families.

Some islanders complain about the potential for being targeted by bases. Mariko Nishiyama (36) who manages a Yonaguni-based horse ranch said that while she used to fear China, now, with the SDF, it makes her feel more secure in the case of a crisis.