Ahmad Ghaddar and Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters). OPEC+ has largely held to its forecasts for a strong recovery in demand next year, ahead of a meeting next Wednesday where the group is expected approve a planned increase of 400,000 barrels per hour (bpd) in December.

According to the Joint Technical Committee, which met Thursday, oil demand is expected to rise by 5.7million bpd between 2021 and 2023, 120,000 bpd lower than OPEC’s latest monthly forecast, two OPEC+ Sources said.

According to one source, the JTC has left next year’s forecast demand steady at 4.2million BPD.

According to the source, there was nothing to worry about in 2021’s revision because it was an update on actual data and rounding.

OPEC+’s forecasts remain higher than the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) which projects that oil demand will grow by 3.3 million bpd and 5.5 million bpd respectively in 2021, 2022. [IEA/M]

On Nov. 4, Ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies – collectively known as OPEC+ – meet to determine output policy.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said to Reuters this week that he expects OPEC+ will continue with the planned December increase as agreed.

As long as there’s uncertainty, demand for oil can fall. Novak also stated, “We see that there’s yet another pandemic in the world.”

This view was shared by the other ministers of the group.

Algeria’s Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab said on Thursday that, “The oil market situation indicates that the increase to December… should never exceed 400,000 bpd.”

Petroleum prices traded above $84 per barrel Friday. This was within striking distance of the $86.70 mark this week, which is the highest level in three years. [O/R]

Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman rejected twice this week calls from major consumer countries to increase OPEC+’s production. The group said it does not anticipate shortages.

“With OECD commercial oil inventories 5.4% below the five-year average and demand rapidly normalising, OPEC+’s preference to keep production policy unchanged reflects an alliance that is significantly more tolerant of higher prices,” JP Morgan said in a note.