U.S. Covid cases fall to less than half of peak delta levels
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An indication directs employees towards COVID-19 testing at World Bank Washington on October 19, 2021.
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters
U.S. Covid cases have fallen to less than half of the pandemic’s most recent peak, a sign that the country may be moving past the punishing wave brought on by the delta variant this summer.
According to Johns Hopkins University data, the U.S. has reported 72,000 new cases each day for the last week. This is 58% less than the 172,500 daily average cases that were recorded on September 13. Vaccination rates have also risen in recent months — albeit more slowly than when the shots were first rolled out — to nearly 58% of fully vaccinated Americans as of Thursday, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data shows.
“Personally, I’m optimistic that this may be one of the last major surges, and the reason for that is because so many people have been vaccinated, and also because a lot of people have had Covid,” said Dr. Arturo Casadevall, chair of molecular microbiology and immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “We now have a lot of immunity in the population.”
The number of hospitalizations is also decreasing. A seven-day average of data from Department of Health and Human Services shows that 51,600 Americans are being hospitalized for Covid. That’s roughly half of 103,000 Covid patients who were reported at the highest point in early September. Even though the U.S. continues to report 1,400 Covid deaths each day, this number has fallen 33% since the September 22nd peak at nearly 2,100 deaths per daily.
The case counts of all U.S. regions have dropped, with the sharpest decline in the South where the Delta wave was most severe this summer.
The pandemic is now over, and experts advise that caution be taken when traveling to any country. Even with positive trends, there are still concerns about rising infections and new strains of the virus in Europe.
Europe: Warning Signs
After two months of declining cases, the U.S. pandemic is now less severe. World Health Organization officials said Thursday. Data from WHO shows that infections are increasing in Europe, while the number of cases in other WHO regions continues to drop.
The number of cases worldwide rose 4% in the week ending Sunday. Nearly 3,000,000 new infections were reported over that time. The WHO estimated that 57% of all new cases were in Europe.
That’s concerning for Americans because pandemic trends in the U.S. have often followed those overseas. For example, the European delta wave was strong before reaching America this summer.
“A lot of times, what we see in Europe is sort of the harbinger of what we see in the U.S. And so it concerns me that cases there are on the rise,” said Dr. Barbara Taylor, an assistant dean and associate professor of infectious diseases at the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio.
CNBC has found that population-adjusted counts of cases in Europe and the United Kingdom have recently surpassed those in America. They are now up 14% compared to the previous week.
As of October 28, the average daily number of new cases in Europe is 275 per day, while it was 218 per million in the United States.
The threat of a new version
Even though the U.S. has seen a decline in cases, it is not surprising that they remain high. The virus continues to be transmitted, which means there will always be new variations.
“The final potential threat or thing that worries us all is the ability of Covid to change and mutate,” said Taylor. The emergence of a new variant “could change everything about the pandemic over the next six months,” she added.
The WHO monitors four Covid variants considered to be of concern. A list is reserved for more contagious and severe mutations OderMore adept at evading vaccinations and other treatment. Delta remains the world’s most dominant variant, and WHO researchers are tracking more than 30 subtypes of the strain, new mutations that haven’t changed enough to be considered individual variants.
Current popularity of the delta plus sublineage in the U.K. is a result of some scientists claiming that it may be as contagious as delta. WHO says 93% of the delta plus cases that have been sequenced were in the U.K. thanks to two modifications to spike protein.
Infectious disease experts told CNBC there isn’t an immediate cause for alarm in the U.S.
“In every single case that you see, there is a finite probability that a new variant will arise. Casadevall stated that as long as the flames are burning, they can occur. “But if you get the numbers lower and lower, the likelihood of it happening is much lower.”
Bruce Farber is the chief of infectious diseases at Northwell Health New York.
“Can there be another variant that spreads? It’s possible. Do I think it’s going to happen now? No,” he said.
‘Dark clouds on the horizon’
Americans will be spending more time together over the Christmas and Thanksgiving holidays. This means that more people are more likely to spend their holiday with loved ones. U.S. Covid deaths and cases hit peak levels after 2020 holidays, with an average of over 250,000 infection and 3400 deaths per day by January 2021.
Americans this year are well-equipped with vaccines. Still, “The dark clouds on the horizon are obviously the holidays,” Farber said.
Recent approval by Dr. Rochelle Walensky, Director of the CDC, was given to parents for their kids to go out on Halloween. However there were some limitations.
“I wouldn’t gather in large settings outside and do screaming like you’re seeing in those football games if you’re unvaccinated” she said on Fox News Sunday last weekend. “But if you’re spread out doing your trick-or-treating, that should be very safe for your children.”
Walensky advised using “prevention strategies” such as getting vaccinated and spending time outdoors to make the holidays as safe as possible.
It’s hard to project the path of a virus that has been consistently unpredictable. But there is a consensus among experts that Covid will likely transition into an “endemic” virus, meaning that it is not totally eradicated but becomes more manageable and part of the respiratory viruses that the country, and the world, deal with on a yearly basis.
“The way I view this is Covid is here forever, and we’re learning to live with it,” said Farber. “And we can live with it pretty well if we keep it to reasonably low levels and we’re smart about it.”
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