Analysis-Sudan’s military leaders could face isolation after coup -Breaking
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Aidan Lewis
CAIRO, Reuters – Sudan’s military could find itself isolated abroad if its attempts to consolidate power following the emergence of a powerful protest movement as well as opposition from Western nations that invested in a democratic transition. Analysts and diplomats warn against this.
The military is without a strong political base in Sudan, and has no prospects of receiving support from Egypt or the Gulf States.
Western countries, including the United States of America, swiftly condemned the coup that occurred Oct. 25, drawing condemnation from the West. They had worked closely with the dissolved transitional government in stabilizing Sudan following decades of being isolated under Bashir.
Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan was the general in charge of the coup. He promised to name a new government, but he has not done so. Mediation efforts between Sudanese politicians and the United Nations are continuing against the backdrop of protests and strikes.
Mediation was focused on finding an avenue for Abdalla Hamdok (the ousted Prime Minister) to create a cabinet of technocrats. Pro-democracy activists respect Hamdok as an economist and allowed him to return home with guards a day following the coup.
Hamdok refused to disband his government prior to the coup and has stated that he won’t negotiate for a new government until the army guarantees to restore the military-civilian powersharing system established after Bashir’s fall.
One diplomatic source said that Burhan does not have the clear path to form a government as he wants.
According to diplomats, analysts, and activists, the military is advancing to control key institutions such as the judiciary and has been making connections with Bashir’s era.
ALTERNATIVE FACTS
The military could refuse to compromise and run the country using cash flow from gold sales. It might also try to create “alternative facts” through control over state media through social media campaigns. Suliman Baldo, an investigative-political group, is based in Washington DC.
However, it will be challenged by a pro-democracy and resilient street movement which mobilized frequently since the start of Bashir’s rebellion nearly three decades ago.
Mohamed Alasbat (spokesman for Sudanese Professionals Association, SPA), said that the protest movement is strong enough to take down the military via scheduled rounds of civil disobedience, and further mass marches.
Four days prior to the coup, hundreds of thousands took to the streets to protest the idea of a military overthrow. Similar crowds returned to the streets Saturday.
Khartoum was brought to a near-halt by the civil disobedience campaign of a broad range of civil groups and protests, along with security measures, over the past week.
Saturday’s demonstrations were organized by neighbourhood committees in Greater Khartoum. They took place despite the almost complete blackout of mobile and internet coverage, and the closing of strategically important sites, bridges, and roads by security forces. To drum support, activists handed out flyers and visited doors to distribute them.
According to Baldo, the protest movement will “end up with eroding every system he’s trying to set up.” Baldo stated that this is his greatest risk and that he will attempt to attack it aggressively.
Washington may be concerned about the potential unrest that this might cause, but foreign states could balk at it. He also said Washington would want to stop any spillover to Ethiopia. This military coup has caused uncertainty surrounding a peace deal signed by transitional authorities with Sudanese rebels last year. The agreement was rejected by two of the major armed groups in Darfur, and the South.
AID WITHHELD
US has attempted to exert pressure with statements that $700 million will not be paid in economic aid to Sudan and that the Sudanese military will continue to exercise unilateral control over debt relief. Khartoum’s president, the World Bank, which is a major source of financing for development, also stopped disbursements.
The army leadership is also at risk from internal divisions in Sudan’s vast military apparatus. This sprawling system was created under Bashir. It includes powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
The ex-head of Bashir’s ruling party was released from prison on Sunday, only to be retried on Monday.
Burhan and his backers “don’t have the capacity or the cohesion among themselves to be able to mount the sort of intensive crackdown that could make it work,” said Alex de Waal, a Sudan expert and head of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University.
The Islamist government of Bashir was not supported by regional powers like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. According to de Waal, they could have nothing to gain from supporting military rule in Sudan.
Saudi Arabia, UAE and UAE are not able to help Sudan get out of its current financial predicament. Therefore the United States and World bank have real leverage. Burhan has nothing to lose, despite the U.S. and Western governments taking a firm stand.
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