By Julie Steenhuysen

CHICAGO, (Reuters) – As the deadly Delta variant surge slows down in many parts of the globe, scientists are trying to figure out when and where COVID-19 might become an endemic condition in 2022. This is according to Reuters interviews conducted with more than a dozen top disease experts.

They believe that countries will emerge with a mixture of high levels of vaccinations and natural immunity from people infected. However, they caution that SARS/CoV-2 continues to be unpredictable and is rapidly spreading through non-vaccinated individuals.

    None would completely rule out what some called a “doomsday scenario,” in which the virus mutates to the point that it evades hard-won immunity. However, they are more confident that most countries will put an end to the pandemic in the next year.

    “We think between now and the end of 2022, this is the point where we get control over this virus … where we can significantly reduce severe disease and death,” Maria Van Kerkhove, an epidemiologist leading the World Health Organization’s (WHO) COVID-19 response, told Reuters.

    The agency’s view is based on work with disease experts who are mapping out the probable course of the pandemic over the next 18 months. The WHO targets 70% vaccinations by 2022.

    “If we reach that target, we will be in a very, very different situation epidemiologically,” Van Kerkhove said.

In the interim, she is worried about COVID-preventive countries being lifted prematurely. It is amazing to see people on the streets as though it’s over.

The WHO reported that COVID-19 death rates and cases worldwide have fallen since August.

Europe is an exception to this rule. Delta has caused havoc in low-vaccination countries like Russia and Romania as well as areas that have relaxed mask-wearing regulations. Due to tighter security measures, countries like China or Singapore have seen an increase in infection rates from the variant.

“The transition is going to be different in each place because it’s going to be driven by the amount of immunity in the population from natural infection and of course, vaccine distribution, which is variable … from county by county to country by country,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

    Several experts said they expect the U.S. Delta wave will wrap up this month, and represent the last major COVID-19 surge.

Scott Gottlieb, ex-Food and Drug Administration Commissioner said: “We are transitioning from the Pandemic Phase to the More Endemic Phase of this Viral Virus. This virus is just becoming a persistent threat here in the United States.”

Chris Murray, an expert on disease prediction at the University of Washington sees the U.S. Delta rise ending in November.   

He said that there will be a “very modest winter increase in COVID-19 case numbers.” COVID begins to decrease in April, if there isn’t any major new variants.

Even though cases may spike as pandemic restrictions drop, like in the UK’s case, people are still being kept out of hospital by vaccines.

Neil Ferguson, an Epidemiologist at Imperial College London stated that the UK has “bulk” of the pandemic.

“A GRADUAL EVOLUTION”

    COVID-19 is still expected to remain a major contributor to illness and death for years to come, much like other endemic illnesses such as malaria.

Van Kerkhove stated, “Endemic doesn’t mean benign.”

Experts believe the virus may eventually mimic measles. This can still cause outbreaks in areas where there is not enough vaccination.

Some see COVID-19 as more of a seasonal disease like influenza. Some believe the virus may become less deadly, mostly affecting children. However, this could be decades away.

   Imperial College’s Ferguson expects above-average deaths in the UK from respiratory disease due to COVID-19 for the next two-to-five years, but said it is unlikely to overwhelm health systems or require social distancing be reimposed.

    “It’s going to be a gradual evolution,” Ferguson said. This is a more permanent virus that we will be dealing.

Trevor Bedford, who is a Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center computer virologist, has been following the evolution SARS.CoV-2. In 2022-2023, there will be a milder season in America, followed by an endemic epidemic. On top of the 30,000 flu-related deaths annually, he projects 50,000 to 100,000 U.S.COVID-19 deaths per year.

Bedford indicated that it is possible for the virus to continue to mutation, which will mean annual booster shots, tailored to current circulating strains.

Gottlieb, Murray and others expect that if there is a seasonal COVID scenario, when the virus circulates with the flu, it will have an impact on healthcare.

Murray stated that hospital planners will have to deal with issues such as how to handle flu and COVID surges during winter. But the time of massive government intervention into people’s lives via mandates is over, I think that this will end.

    Richard Hatchett, chief executive of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, said with some countries well protected by vaccines while others have virtually none, the world remains vulnerable.

    “What keeps me up at night about COVID is the concern that we could have a variant emerge that evades our vaccines and evades immunity from prior infection,” Hatchett said. “That would be like a new COVID pandemic emerging even while we’re still in the old one.”