likely to maintain slow oil output despite high prices
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On Wednesday, March 11, 2020, oil pumping jacks (also known as “nodding donkeys”) operated in an oilfield close to Almetyevsk.
Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The oil price has risen to its highest point since 2014 and the consequences are being felt by crude import countries. Despite diplomatic pressure from OPEC and its allied countries, it is unlikely that they will open the water taps at Thursday’s oil cartel meeting.
Analysts predict that this will lead to continued high prices for energy through the year, and possibly into 2022.
In a Wednesday note, Edward Bell, senior advisor on market economics for Dubai-based bank Emirates NBD wrote that “For the moment, we still expect to find OPEC+ member remain in favor keeping oil markets tight and taking advantage of high prices to improve fiscal account,”.
The sharp rise of energy prices around the globe and in the U.S. was directly attributable to President Joe Biden’s refusal by OPEC+ oil producers.
“The idea that Russia and Saudi Arabia and other major producers are not going to pump more oil so people can have gasoline to get to and from work, for example, is not right,” Biden said Sunday at the G-20 meeting in Rome, Italy.
Japan and India joined the U.S. to try to press OPEC into increasing its production limits and lowering energy prices.
The OPEC member countries and their allies including Russia have so far approved the August policy of increasing oil production gradually by 400,000 barrels each day. Angola’s oil minister Diamantino Perez Azevedo declared Sunday that the program is “working well”.
Kuwait, Nigeria, and Algeria also stated Monday they should stick with their current plans because of the “well-balanced” oil market.
The consumer doesn’t find things balanced. Brent crude rose more than 60% to $86 per barrel last October after reaching a 3-year record. The price has declined in the days before the OPEC meeting. Trading at $81.86 per barrel in London at 7:20 on Thursday
West Texas IntermediateIt is now up by more than 70% and has reached its highest level in seven years. Recently, it touched $85 per barrel. However, in London, the price was $80.44 per barrel. American gasoline has also reached a seven year high.
For OPEC+ ministers, the word of the month is caution, said Herman Wang, senior oil writer at S&P Platts.
Wang stated to CNBC that despite all the pressure Japan, India, and America have put on them to produce more oil, many ministers have cited Covid-19 rates as well as the anticipated seasonal drop in oil demand when the calendar changes in support of a conservative approach.
“The price rise may be temporary, but OPEC+ should expect more complaints from key customers until the market cools down.”
Frustrated oil importers also can’t do much to force OPEC’s hand — the U.S. could use crude from its strategic petroleum reserves, Bell wrote, in an attempt to bring down prices. However, this is a bold move normally reserved for urgent cases such as natural disasters and war. Furthermore, the U.S.’s call for OPEC to pump more oil contradicts its claimed goal of leading global climate change policy.
Bell stated that all of this was a consequence of “we remain the view” that oil prices would stay high through 2021, and then likely fall into next year.
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