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China’s Oct exports likely remain strong on robust global demand, imports surge

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© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: These containers can be seen at Yangshan Deep Water Port (Shanghai, China) August 6, 2019. REUTERS/Aly Song

BEIJING (Reuters – China’s October export growth was likely to slow slightly, however, it remained steady due to robust global consumption, easing global supply chains disruptions and a mitigating energy crunch. On Friday, a Reuters poll revealed that imports soared in response.

The median prediction of 22 economists polled by the poll predicts that exports will rise 24.5% to October, compared with a year prior. This follows a growth rate of 28.1% in September.

According to the poll, October’s imports increased 25% from one year ago. That compares with September’s 17.6%. The rise in oil prices, and China increasing coal imports, led to an expected increase of 25%.

Exports of consumer goods to October were driven by “peak consumer demand in Europe and the United States during the holidays season.” Industrial Bank’s analysts said that corporates have been buying preemptively to avoid delivery delays and supply chain disruptions.

The authors noted that there was a slight chance of export growth being slowed by the higher base than a year prior.

South Korea’s October export growth was also double-digit. The increase in demand for Korean chips as well as petrochemical products came after major market recovery.

China’s economic recovery from the pandemic has been impressive, but signs are that it is slowing down. This could be due to slower industrial growth and a frozen property sector.

According to an official survey, factory activity declined for the second month straight in October. The growth in industrial output fell to its lowest level since March 2020, during the initial wave of the pandemic.

Premier Li Keqiang stated Tuesday that authorities will effectively adjust policy in the face of renewed downward pressure and market challenges.

According to analysts, a return of COVID-19 in a wide swathes of China is unlikely to cause a significant disruption to supply chain logistics.

Analysts say they do not anticipate the COVID resurgence causing significant disruptions to supply chains or export price adjustments. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: ) said Thursday in a note.

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