Strong jobs report shows economy back on track for further growth
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Stellantis Detroit Assembly plant, which makes the new 2021 Grand Cherokee L three-row SUV.
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The economy could see a rebound from the Covid-related recession in October and grow more quickly than anticipated in the fourth quarter, if there is broad-based hiring strength.
Employment increased by 531,000 in the month,There were gains across many sectors, such as manufacturing, business, and hospitality. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%. In August and September, there were 235,000 additional payrolls due to revisions of previous months’ data.
Chief economist of Grant Thornton, Diane Swonk said, “We are accelerating as the Delta wave abates” and that, given the revisions to the plan, the storm has passed. It suppressed spending because people were scared of contagion, but it didn’t stop underlying employment from picking up, so we’re now back to normal.
Third quarter: Economy slowdown due to supply chain disruptions, Covid and other factors. Gross domestic product grew by just 2%. Swonk expected growth to be 5% for the fourth quarter. However, she now believes it might be even higher.
These numbers could make it a stronger event. “There’s no question that we are going to finish on a high note,” she stated.
Economists expected that 450,000 jobs would be created by October. This is an increase from the September revised 32,000. There were some disappointments. For example, there was a drop in education jobs at the local and state governments of almost 65,000. The labor force participation was also not as high as expected at 61.6%.
Overall, however economists considered the report to be positive. These numbers are great. Swonk said that the private sector was taking over from the public sector.
She said that education loss is a result of inability schools to attract back employees and cope with retirement tsunami. The public sector is not seeing the private sector’s wages rise at the same rate. They can’t compete. They need to increase wages. These low-paid job opportunities are in direct competition with Amazon and Walmart.
Barclays chief U.S. economics officer Michael Gapen stated that the new employment report shows that the economy is on the right track following the decline in third-quarter GDP growth. He said that while we won’t see the same growth in the second half of this year, we are not at 2%.
Inflationary pressures have not subsided and wages continued to climb sharply. Average hourly earnings saw another increase, increasing by 0.4% over the month before and 4.9% over 12 months.
Although the wage component was high and employment growth was strong, economists agree that this report doesn’t change the Federal Reserve’s current dynamic. The central bank could reevaluate its plans to wind down its bond program if there is strong job growth for a few months more.
Wednesday’s announcement by the Fed indicated that they would start paring their bond purchases and end the $120 million monthly program in the middle next year. Swonk believes that the Fed will raise interest rates after the end of the program. According to Swonk, the central bank may reevaluate its schedule if there is still strong job growth.
The Fed is concerned about inflation. According to economists, a worsening trend in inflation may prompt Fed policymakers and others to accelerate their efforts to eliminate bond purchases.
Stephen Stanley is chief economist at Amherst Pierpont. He suggests that the Fed might be forced to change its timing. A few more reports such as this will help bring full employment within the reach of the economy. This report represents a major step in the direction of full employment. [Federal Open Market Committee]”Needing to accelerate tapering’s pace early next year, ultimately having rates raised earlier than current policymakers anticipate,” he said. He also stated that he expected the Fed to increase interest rates by June.
According to economists the positive effect of broad-based job growth on the economy was an indicator that the economy is on the right track.
Business and professional services created 100,000 new jobs. Manufacturing saw an additional 60,000 job growth. The number of transportation and warehousing workers grew 54,400 while the retail sector grew 35,300. The number of construction jobs rose by 44,000
The number of jobs in hospitality and leisure grew by 164,000 to 2.4 million by 2021. The sector has lost 1.4million jobs or 8.2% since February 2020, however.
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