Matt Spetalnick and Daina Beth Solomon

SAN JOSE (Reuters). Despite his efforts to address migration from Central America, U.S. President Joe Biden was defeated by Nicaragua’s President Daniel Ortega’s reelection. Ortega’s election is the best example of the region’s democracy drift.

Ortega’s election https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/nicaraguas-ortega-coasting-victory-after-contentious-election-2021-11-08 on Sunday for a fourth straight term followed the arrests of political rivals and closing down of political parties in recent months.

U.S. calls for the free exercise of voting rights and sanctions had very little impact. Ortega, an ex-left-wing fighter who in 1980 fought Washington’s right-wing insurgents known as ‘Contra’. He accused his enemies of being U.S. pawns.

Another example of a similar disconnection is evident elsewhere. The Northern Triangle of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala is a grouping that has seen a similar disconnect. In El Salvador and Guatemala, the government’s allies have fired, transferred, or undermined the prosecutors and judges who were backed by Washington.

One official from the U.S. said that there is some frustration within Biden’s government about the resistance it faces in its attempts to encourage anti-corruption and good governance throughout the region.

Biden’s leadership identified weakness in governance as one of the causes of Central America migration. It is both a long-term problem that must be solved and a short-term solution to manage record levels of migrants.

Senior State Department officials stated that they were “not surprised” at the resistance from Central American governments. They also acknowledged that the region was experiencing a “tough time” due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, as well as other “destabilizing events.”

An official speaking under anonymity said that the administration will stick with its multi-year and multibillion dollar plan to deal with short-term and long-term issues related to migration.

The Biden administration also plans https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-us-announce-new-nicaragua-sanctions-very-soon-official-2021-11-09 to announce new U.S. sanctions and other punitive actions “very soon” in response to Ortega’s re-election, the official told Reuters.

Laura Chinchilla was the former President of Costa Rica. She said Central America was in its most fragile moment since the Cold War civil wars that rocked it in the 1980s. Washington’s focus on policy had been “swallowed up by” the issue of migration.

She said that Trump and Obama failed to see the bigger picture on migration and security, and they lacked an integrated approach.

Nearly 10 months into the Biden administration, and with numbers of migrants arrested at the U.S.-Mexico border at record levels https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-under-pressure-us-mexico-border-arrests-reach-record-highs-2021-10-20, it was still unclear if actions would back up new promises for the region, Chinchilla added.

According to Tiziano Brda from International Crisis Group (a think tank that studies conflict worldwide), the situation is uncomfortable and difficult for a superpower which used to rule Central America.

Breda stated that it would take more than public shame and strong statements to reverse this trend.

Weak Spot

This could also reveal a weakness in U.S. strategies towards the region. Trump’s presidential victory has demonstrated that the Trump administration can make or break U.S. politics by threatening Biden with a swipe over border management.

According to Jose Miguel Vivanco, an advocacy group Human Rights Watch, the Central American governments could be using this fact as leverage. They are afraid that they will lose cooperation in immigration and may use it as leverage.

Analysts believe they also seem to learn from one another about the benefits of backsliding when it comes to issues such as separation of powers.

A State Department official voiced concern about the possibility that Ortega’s strategy could inspire other Central American “actors”.

However, the official claimed that Central American governments weren’t using U.S. migration concerns as leverage for a pushback on governance.

According to the source, “These governments work with us regarding migration as it’s in their national best interest,” the individual said.

Ryan Berg was a researcher with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Ortega, which is a think tank for foreign policy, offered Ortega a “playbook… for any other wannabe autoritarians in Central America.”

Ricardo Zuniga (U.S. Special Envoy for Central America) said Tuesday that it was possible for Nicaragua to repeat the same fate if no compensation is paid.

In El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele has stoked concerns https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/thousands-protest-el-salvador-against-bukele-government-2021-10-17 that he is steadily concentrating power. Recent Supreme Court decisions by Bukele’s party ruled the president can seek another term. This is contrary to the constitution. Bukele also sent troops to the parliament in an effort to push for legislation.

Jean Manes said that the U.S. charge de affaires ad int told reporters Monday, “Relations to El Salvador aren’t solid.” We simply cannot look away from a democracy in decline when it happens.

Requests for comments from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras representatives did not receive a response immediately. In the past, they have all warned against the possibility of U.S.-imposed pressures on their domestic decision making. This could jeopardize progress toward common policy goals.