The decline in infection rates has stopped after weeks of plummeting U.S. Covid-19 case numbers.

The number of new infections has fallen to an average of 74,000 per person per day in the last week. This is 57% less than the peak of 172,500 cases per day at the Delta Wave’s Sept. 13 peak.

This is a good thing, but the trend has slowed down in recent weeks. According to Johns Hopkins University data, there have been between 75,000 and 70,000 new cases per day for almost three weeks. In the meantime, most of America’s covid hotspots have moved away from the South.

According to Hopkins, the daily death rate remains high with over 1,200 deaths per day reporting in the last week. This is up by 1% from one week ago.

The South has seen the most drastic decline in cases. This region was where the Delta wave struck the earliest and worst over the summer. Average daily infection rates in this area have dropped by 84% since peak levels, and they continue to fall. Florida is the only state that has seen a steep decline in cases, despite being overrun by hospitals as it battled one of the most severe Covid epidemics in America this summer.

Additional Southern states affected by the delta surge spikes included Mississippi, Louisiana, Georgia and Mississippi. These states also rank among the top ten according to new daily cases per capita.

The South also has a lower rate of hospitalizations and death. According to CNBC’s analysis of data provided by the Department of Health and Human Services, the region’s average seven-day number of 112 Covid residents per 1,000,000 inhabitants is among the lowest in the nation.

According to Dr. Sonja Ramussen of the University of Florida College of Medicine’s departments of Pediatrics, Epidemiology and Pediatrics, “We arrived from a high place, so our spike happened a bit sooner.” She spoke out about the state’s decline in cases. The cooler temperatures of the typically tropical climate makes it more convenient for Floridians, which allows them to enjoy the outdoors. This is where the virus doesn’t spread as quickly as indoors.

“I think we are really starting to see some seasonality – maybe not winter-spring like we see with the flu, but more when people are more indoors versus outdoors,” she said. In Florida we used to spend more time indoors during the heat of summer. Now we can enjoy the outdoors more.

Outside of the U.S. South, things are moving in the other direction. The past week has seen an increase in cases in the Midwest by 25%, Northeast by 18%, and West at 4%. Hospitalizations are down by 9% for the Northeast during the same time, while they remain steady in the Midwest.

Due to recent increases in new cases per day, the Midwest has now become the most populous region. According to A.A., Minnesota has an average case load of about 3,300 per day. This is “among the highest levels we have seen thus far in 2021.” tweet from the state’s health department Tuesday. The tweet stated that “sadly, the pandemic remains far from over.”

The West’s next highest population-adjusted case numbers are New Mexico, Colorado and Arizona. They have seen an average increase of 15% over the past fourteen days.

According to Dr. Jonathan Samet (dean of University of Colorado’s Public Health School and leader of their Covid modeling group), the hospital at the University of Colorado was over capacity last week due to Covid and all the reasons people visit hospitals.

Samet explained, “When you talk with your clinical colleagues, everything is full. Colorado Governor issues emergency orders. Jared Polis permits hospitals to transport patients to other facilities when necessary, he stated. However, the hospital reserves or beds were lower than in the year prior to the surge.

Polis signed an executive order Oct. 31, allowing the Department of Public Health and Environment of the State to direct hospitals that are at capacity to stop any new admissions and to transfer patients to other facilities. The state’s health department can now direct hospitals to allow patient transfers.

HHS data shows that Colorado has about 85% utilization of its staffed intensive care units beds. It is the seventh most populous state. About 36% are used by Covid patients. This is fourth. 

Samet explained that recent outbreaks were caused by colder weather in certain parts of the country and low vaccine rates elsewhere.

He stated that vaccinations are a “patchwork” like many other states. “Our rural areas have lower vaccination rates and have the highest hospitalization and case rates right now.” 

Samet was unable to pinpoint why Colorado had experienced such a high level of Covid infected. Colorado has nearly twice the number of Covid-adjusted deaths than Kansas. But, neighboring states, such as Wyoming and Utah, have very bad epidemics.

Samet stated that the unvaccinated “drivers as in many places” but that they are not unique to Colorado in having large numbers of unvaccinated people spreading the disease. While we know that unvaccinated individuals are crucial, that does not explain Colorado’s current situation.

Rasmussen, the University of Florida doctor, also mentioned low vaccination rates as reasons to believe that Florida and nearby states like Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama are still at risk for future outbreaks — despite any immunity residents have built up from the summer delta surge.

She said, “Their vaccinations rates aren’t high enough for me to feel safe that we won’t see ongoing outbreaks when people come together, especially in areas with lower vaccine rates.”

Florida’s 60% of residents who have been fully immunized is only a fraction of the overall national rate. Rasmussen noted that some counties in Florida may have higher rates. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana rank among the top ten states for complete vaccination rates at 45.2% and 46.2% respectively.

Covid could become part of the “endemic” respiratory virus as a result of further advances in treatment and vaccines.

For example, the emergence of antiviral Covid Pills from Merck or Pfizer could prevent infection from leading to hospitalizations and deaths. Pfizer’s current treatment doesn’t replace vaccines. This is Dr. Scott Gottlieb of Pfizer, who was a board member and former FDA Commissioner, said to CNBC’s “Squawk Box”. FridayIt is possible, however, to offer greater protection to those at high risk of severe Covid complications.

“When you have therapeutics that are this effective, that can be a backstop for people for whom vaccines don’t work, people who have breakthrough infections – there’s pills being studied in that setting,” Gottlieb said. It is an effective way to prevent the spread of this disease and death.

Pfizer released data FridayCovid Pills cut hospitalization and deaths by 89% in high risk adults. It was paired with HIV medicine to make it last longer. Merck, Ridgeback Therapeutics said in OctoberPatients with moderate or mild Covid cases found that 50% of their antiviral treatment reduced the risk of death and hospitalization.

The President Joe Biden’s inauguration may give the U.S. a boost in vaccinations. workplace vaccine mandatesThe Occupational Safety and Health Administration enforces this requirement. Every business with over 100 employees must make sure their workers are up to date on Covid vaccinations by January 4, 2019. Employees who don’t comply should wear a mask, and be tested frequently.

OSHA will have a mandate that affects some 84 millions workers in the private sector, but new rules are already in place facing resistance in court

Covid vaccines for children aged 5-11 years were approved recently. Rochelle Walensky (CDC Director) approved Pfizer’s vaccine for children aged 5 to 11.