Joseph White and Sheila Dang by Arriana McLymore

DETROIT (Reuters – Luxury car brands have been promoting holiday sales for years with slogans like Lexus’s “A December to Remember.”

Analysts and industry executives said that automakers and dealers will spend less advertising this holiday season than they did in previous seasons. This is despite the fact that there are no lease offers or discounts. Auto dealerships are now down to about one-third their normal stock levels after a year of production and supply disruptions, leaving them with little incentive for holiday advertising.

Rory Harvey (Vice President of General Motors Co. (NYSE:) Cadillac Brand), stated that “we will not promote the holiday season like we have been.” He said that the vehicle supply was at one-third of its normal level, and that he didn’t see any reason to change.

According to Pathmatics and EDO, General Motors spent $106 million in TV ads for Cadillac and $16.4 Million on digital advertising for the brand.

The automakers aren’t the only ones having trouble. Supply chain problems across many categories, including apparel and electronics, are causing inventory shortages. The Adobe (NASDAQ: Digital Economy Index) revealed that online shoppers were able to see more than 2.5 billion out of stock messages last month. This is more than three-times the amount seen in October 2019.

Pathmatics, which compiled the data for Reuters, found that carmakers – who tend to be big spenders during fourth quarter – spent approximately $23million or 10% less in digital advertising from late July through the end of Oct. Instagram ads are not included in the 2019 data.

According to EDO estimates, the industry spent $57million or 5% less in broadcast TV commercials between 2019 and 2020.

“Winter sales events are such an institutionalized event, that it’s hard not to do them,” said Kevin Krim, chief executive of EDO. “But if they do their jobs really well, they could make people unhappy if the cars aren’t there. It is a December to forget for the automakers.”

Ford Motor (NYSE -) Co. launched a campaign called “Get Holiday Ready” to market its F series pickups and some SUVs. Lexus will also continue its “December to Remember”, annual advertising campaign that popularized luxury vehicles as holiday gifts.

It’s essential to the brand for us to make drastic changes to it. Vinay Shahani (the brand’s U.S. vice President for Marketing) said, “It’s part our DNA.” He said that Lexus will spend “in the same ballpark” as previous years.

Shahani stated that you can expect offers to be less compelling than they were two years ago.

AutoNation Inc, the U.S.’s largest auto retailer chain (NYSE:), plans to spend less advertising in 2019 than the year before. According to Cannon, discount offers from automakers would be “light all around.”

According to Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson who was an analyst at MoffettNathanson last week, media companies selling ad space for commercials on national TV could be the most affected by the disruptions.

Nathanson stated that he expected the national television advertising budget to decrease by 1% in the fourth quarter. This is because car makers, who continue to have problems with chips shortages, may run less holiday ads.

He also stated that this would represent a total drop of 7% in ads since 2019, pre-COVID.

PAYING ATTENTION

Look ahead to the holiday season and look beyond the car lot. Some shoppers may experience temporary marketing blackouts due to labor and inventory shortages.

According to EDO estimates, department stores including Macy’s and Nordstrom spent 88% less in TV ads between July 30th to October 30th than the same time period in 2019.

As dine-in restaurants struggle to hire enough staff, casual dining restaurants have seen their TV advertising spend drop by 56%.

However, the supply chain disruptions have not caused data analytic firms to lower projections for total ad spending this year because brands want to maintain a customer’s attention for when products are finally available, said advertising experts who spoke with Reuters.

Pathmatics data, which monitors internet display ads, digital ads, and platforms such as Twitter (NYSE:), show that top 25 advertisers in four major sectors, including packaged goods, electronics, retail and gaming, doubled their spending in the last three months when compared to the same time in 2020. Amazon (NASDAQ): spent $300 million over the last three months, while it spent $176 millions in the same period of 2020. Target (NYSE) spent $89 Million compared with $46 Million during the same period of 2020.

Bret Sanford-Chung is the managing director of KPMG’s marketing consulting. He said that while some advertisers may have changed their messages in order to sell products already in stock, others simply want to retain their brands in front of customers.