(Bloomberg). The U.S. raises alarm to European Union allies about Russia’s possible invasion of Ukraine, as tensions rise between Moscow and the bloc in relation to migrants and energy supply.

According to multiple sources familiar with the matter, Washington has been closely monitoring the buildup of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border. U.S. officials informed EU counterparts regarding their concerns about a possible military operation.

The assessments are believed to be based on information the U.S. hasn’t yet shared with European governments, which would have to happen before any decision is made on a collective response, the people said. They’re backed up by publicly-available evidence, according to officials familiar with the administration’s thinking. 

Russia claims that military deployments are an internal matter. It denies aggressive intent and says it has no intention to deploy troops on its territory. However, the U.S. is accused of provocation by sailing warships through the Black Sea near its territory. 

According to news reports, the ruble lost 0.5% against dollar and fell to a six day low. 

Similar tensions flared in spring, when North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the U.S. accused Russia of deploying up to 100,000 soldiers, tanks and planes close to the Ukrainian border. After U.S. President Joe Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin, the crisis was eased and a summit took place in June.

White House officials didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. 

Russia’s latest movement of troops and tanks toward Ukraine spurred CIA Director Bill Burns to visit Moscow this month, where he spoke by phone with Putin. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also asked Putin in a call Wednesday to use his influence with Russia’s ally Belarus to defuse a crisis over thousands of Middle East migrants seeking to cross the border with Poland into the EU. Putin declined.

Why Belarus is being flooded by Turmoil: QuickTake

On Thursday, Merkel and Putin spoke about Ukraine and Belarus again. The Kremlin issued a statement. The Russian leader criticized Ukraine’s alleged use of combat drones in violation of a previous agreement and American military activity in the Black Sea, according to the statement. 

This warning by the U.S. over Ukraine follows the standoff that occurred between Poland and Belarus (a Russian close ally). And it is playing out amid uncertainty over increased Russian gas supplies to Europe despite Putin’s pledge to ramp up deliveries from this week to ease an energy crunch. He’s pushing for European regulators to give swift approval to operate the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, a project the U.S. and Ukraine opposed as a security risk.

Russia doesn’t intend to start a war with Ukraine now, though Moscow should show it’s ready to use force if necessary, one person close to the Kremlin said. A Russian offensive would be unlikely, as Russian troops could face resistance from Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. However, there are plans to counter any provocations by Ukraine. 

The West is preparing new sanctions for Belarus in response to what it considers a fake migration crisis. President Alexander Lukasenko warned Thursday that he would shut down the key pipeline transporting Russian gas to Europe if Poland does not close their border. “I would recommend the leadership of Poland, Lithuanians and other empty-headed people to think before speaking,” he said.

Why Europe has become so dependent on Putin’s gas: QuickTake

The U.S. officials said that Kamala Harris (the Vice President of the United States) and Emmanuel Macron (the President of France) had extensive discussions about Ukraine during their talks in Paris on Wednesday. The official stated that Belarus was part of the same security context. 

According to two U.S. government officials, Russia is behind the migration crisis that has erupted between Poland and Belarus. The Baltic countries — Lithuania and Latvia border Belarus — were created to disrupt the region. 

U.S. concerns about Russian intentions are based on accumulated evidence and trends that carry echoes of the run-up to Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, another administration official said. 

Russian officials have denied these accusations. 

“Russia has nothing to do with what is happening at the border of Belarus and Poland,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call Thursday. 

Moscow’s Intentions

While U.S. and Russian general staffs are in constant contact, the presence of American navy vessels in the Black Sea close to Russia is “absolutely” a matter of concern for Putin, Peskov added.

One person familiar with the matter said that the information U.S. officials gave on Russia during the meeting in Brussels was disturbing. Another person emphasized that there’s no way of knowing Moscow’s true intentions, and what its next move might be or when.

Dmytro Kuleba (Ukraine Foreign Minister) met with Antony Blinken, Secretary of State, on Wednesday in Washington. It seemed that the U.S. might have shared some information with him. 

“What we heard and saw today in Washington, D.C. corresponds to our own findings and analysis, adds some new elements which allows us to get a better, more comprehensive picture,” Kuleba said at a joint news conference with Blinken. The situation in Belarus is a “potential frontline” and shouldn’t be underestimated, he said.

How Russia-Ukraine Tensions are so Hard to Disarm: QuickTake

The U.S. doesn’t “have clarity over Moscow’s intentions” toward Ukraine, Blinken told reporters. “Our concern is that Russia may make the serious mistake of attempting to rehash what it undertook in 2014.”

Since Putin’s response to the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, which saw the ousting of the pro-Moscow leader by seizing Crimea, Russia and Ukraine have been at war. Russia supported separatists from eastern Ukraine, a conflict that resulted in more than 13,000 deaths.

Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which oversees the situation in Europe under an agreement of 2015, stated Wednesday that it witnessed the largest cease-fire violations in October since July 2020.

Janes Defense Intelligence, a defense-intelligence company, claims the Russian military deployment of recent years has been secretive, occurring often in the night and being carried out in elite ground units. It is contrary to the relatively open spring buildup.

Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission) was in Washington Wednesday and said she had spoken with Biden about Ukraine’s territorial integrity and that they were fully supportive. 

Ukraine has declared its ambition to join the EU and NATO, to Moscow’s fury. Although Kremlin officials boast that Russian forces can quickly reach Kyiv easily, it is much harder to control a nation of 44 million people in the face of international condemnation. 

Putin warned rival nations in April that “they will regret it more than they’ve regretted anything in a long time” if they cross Russia’s “red line” on security. The deputy speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, Pyotr Tolstoy, declared that “all of Ukraine will be part of Russia and there won’t be any Ukraine” in a debate broadcast on Russia’s NTV last month. 

“I hope now the whole world clearly sees who really wants peace and who is concentrating almost 100,000 troops on our border,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an address to the nation late Wednesday. “Psychological pressure from Russia doesn’t have an impact on us, our intelligence has all the information, our army is ready to repel anytime and anywhere.”

(Adds ruble weakening in fifth paragraph.)

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