Drones and F-35 fighter jet deal in focus for the Dubai Air Show
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Two MQ-9 Reapers belonging to the 46th Expeditionary Attack Squadron were parked at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait on June 9, 2020.
Senior Airman Isaiah J. Soliz | U.S. Air Force
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Cutting-edge technologies and geopolitics are set to feature in military deals at this year’s Dubai Air Show. And some weapons sales — or lack thereof — are major sticking points for both the U.S. and its Gulf allies, in particular the United Arab Emirates.
The industry show will feature major topics such as fighter jet fleet upgrade and counter-UAS (unmanned aircraft systems) technology. This is especially important considering drone attacks in the region over the past few years.
But many eyes will be on whether prior agreements made under the Trump administration to sell certain U.S. weapons systems to the UAE will actually come through — agreements that have been stalled since the Biden administration came into power.
They are the Lockheed Martin F-35 II fighter jet, and the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper drone. This would make it the first sales of F-35 and U.S-made drones to Arab countries.
Richard Aboulafia of Teal Group’s vice president for analysis, stated to CNBC that “For quite awhile, the UAE have had an outstanding fighter plane requirement moving toward an F-35 buy but it is terribly fraught with problems.”
On Jan. 20, Donald Trump signed a $23 billion deal to sell the UAE. The majority was 50 F-35 aircraft and at most 18 armed drones.
U.S. export rules had prevented Washington selling drones capable of killing to Arab allies. A sale of F-35 to the Gulf desert Sheikhdom was originally ruled out due to an obligation by the U.S. legal to hold its most advanced weapons sales in Israel to preserve Israel’s “qualitative army edge” in Middle East.
After Israel and UAE signed Abraham Accords, in August 2020, relations were normalized and opened up to cooperation and trade. And the export restrictions on armed drones were loosened by the Trump administration in July of 2020 to allow certain drones — including the lethal Reapers — to be sold to friendly Arab states.
China losing technological space
Why did this change occur? Defense experts agree that geopolitics is important as well as competition.
Charles Forrester of IHS Jane’s, senior analyst for defense industry at IHS Jane’s said that Washington was “trying kind of to come into the practical reality of what is the current global environment for unmanned systems.”
He said something that American industry leaders had warned about. China is losing market share. China sells its own drones to Arab nations, including the UAE.
“The Trump administration was … realizing that if they didn’t adjust their policies, they would lose power, influence and technological space to China,” Forrester said.
‘Drones, drones, drones’
Teal Group’s Aboulafia stated that drones were the most attractive segment in China aerospace. Absolutely. Drones, drones, drones. You know that there is no such thing. It is no longer a passive platform. All data is lost. That’s an issue.“
A Wing Loong drone made in China is passed by participants at the Dubai Airshow, November 14, 2017. It was displayed in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Getty Images| AFP | Getty Images
Some UAE neighbors and the UAE have purchased Chinese-made Wing Loong drones. However, these purchases are not without their challenges. Apart from performance problems, the UAE can’t integrate the Chinese technology into its command-and-control systems. These are built by American firms.
They don’t interoperable. Forrester stated that this is very important. But the UAE still uses them. Because they haven’t had an option, they were able to make use of them enough.
Biden and his back-and forth
Biden had announced that he would review the huge weapons agreement with the UAE during his first term. He later stated in April that the sale might proceed. However, progress was halted again shortly afterward due to concerns about the U.S. growing ties with China.
Industry experts claim that the Biden administration is pressing the UAE to remove Huawei Technologies from its network of telecoms and to abandon its other Chinese weapon technology. This was because they are perceived as a security risk and an espionage threat to American technology. A Pentagon report in 2020 stated that China had “very likely” already begun to plan for overseas military logistic facilities, in addition to other countries.
The Emirati government rejected the concerns, with its ambassador to the U.S., Yousef al-Otaiba, saying in a statement earlier this year: “The UAE has a long and consistent track record of protecting U.S. military technology, both in coalitions where we’ve served alongside the U.S. military and inside the UAE where a broad range of sensitive U.S. military assets have been deployed for many years.”
CNBC reached out to China’s foreign ministry but they did not reply.
Negotiations are ongoing. There is reportedly a lot of back and forth on the details. The F-35 planes would start delivery to UAE in 2027 according to current arrangements. A stronger Chinese presence might delay this indefinitely.
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