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China’s Economy Stabilizes as Retail Spending Rebounds -Breaking

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© Reuters. China’s Economy Stabilizes as Retail Spending Rebounds

(Bloomberg) — China’s economy performed better than expected in October as retail sales and industrial output beat estimates, relieving concern a property slump was broadening. 

Industrial output rose 3.5% in October from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, faster than September’s reading and higher than economists’ expectations. The 4.9% increase in retail sales was higher than the 3.7% estimated by economists according to a Bloomberg survey. 

Fixed-asset investments saw a decrease of 6.1% over the past 10 months, as opposed to a 6.2% forecast. The 4.9% surveyed rate of unemployment was constant.

The better-than-expected numbers will come as a relief after the economy’s momentum weakened in the second half of the year, with both demand and supply coming under pressure. Beijing’s crackdown on the property market has slowed lending to a sector that accounts for as much as 25% of GDP, while energy shortages have caused factories to curb production. 

“The national economy was generally stable and maintained the trend of recovery,” the NBS said in a statement. “However, we must be aware that the international environment is still complicated and severe with many unstable and uncertain factors.”

The NBS also released separate data showing that October saw a 0.25 percent drop in home prices compared to September. This is a larger decline than the September one. 

After the data dump, the CSI 300 Index lost 0.3% in Shangahai.

The slowdown has put the spotlight back on policy makers, who have so far taken a muted approach to stimulus, preferring to “fine-tune” policies rather than flood the economy with support. 

In line with that approach, the People’s Bank of China refrained from injecting additional cash into the financial system in its monthly liquidity operation on Monday, rolling over all the loans maturing instead.

Economists predict that Beijing will keep the property curbs in place, which would lead to a slower growth rate for next year. According to Bloomberg surveys of economists, GDP growth will slow to 3.5% for the last quarter and reach 8% by the end of the year. It is also expected that it will weaken to 5.4% by 2022.

(Updates, with comments from NBS, market reactions.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P. 

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