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Factbox-Wall Street forecasts for the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yield in 2022 -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO A Wall Street street sign can be seen at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), New York City, New York. It was taken on January 3, 2019, by Shannon Stapleton. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

NEW YORK (Reuters] – Wall Street banks began to publish their projections for 2022 in relation to euro/dollar, dollar/yen and benchmark.

Below is an overview of the forecasts.

Bank Euro/dollar Dollar/yen U.S. 10-year

Treasury yield

Barclays (LON:) $1.19 115 yen 1.75%

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) $1.18 118 yen 2.1%

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) $1.18 111 yen 2.0%

JP Morgan $1.12 114 yen 2.10%

(end-Sept 2022)

Wells Fargo (NYSE:) $1.10-$1.18 110-120 2.00-2.50%

Placement

Institute

Barclays

Dollar: “We anticipate modest U.S. currency depreciation during the coming year. It reflects our views on a positive backdrop to risk and commodities along with moderate U.S.dollar overvaluation. Risk-off movements are more important than U.S. underperformance. The downside risks from U.S. aggressive market pricing and tighter Fed policy have a smaller impact on upside.

Morgan Stanley

U.S. 10-year yields

Dollar vs. euro and yen: We see an upward-and-down trend for the U.S. dollars. The Fed emphasizes that the maximum employment rate is still a ways off and that any subsequent increases post-liftoff will likely be gradual, despite improved data. This contrasts with central banks that, having been very dovish, have begun to consider normalization plans. The U.S. dollar falls as a consequence of policy convergence becoming policy divergence.

Goldman Sachs

Dollar: We have lowered our 12-month forecast from $1.25 to $1.18.

JPMorgan (NYSE:)

Dollar: Policy repricing continues amid an ongoing supply-side inflation shock. For some currencies, the theme of Monetary Policy Divergence is still a concern. Developments in the U.S. — a more open-minded Fed on inflation and a tight labor market report—are supportive of U.S. dollar longs against the euro and yen.

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