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Analysis-Unspoken U.S. aim at Iran nuclear talks may be winning Chinese, Russian support -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO – The Iranian flag is waved in front the headquarters of International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna (Austria), May 23, 2021. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

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John Irish and Arshad Mohamed

WASHINGTON/PARIS, (Reuters) – The U.S. stated goal when the indirect U.S./Iran talks resume this month, is to find a way to revive a 2015 nuke deal. However, Washington may have an unspoken goal to gain support from Russia and China to press Iran if talks fail, diplomats suggested.

Western diplomats claim that time is short to revive the pact which was abandoned by President Donald Trump in 2018. This angered Iran and dismayed the other major players in the pact: Britain, France, Germany, China and France.

In exchange for U.S., EU, and U.N. financial sanctions relief, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program. Trump’s decision in 2018 to reimpose severe U.S. sanctions caused Tehran to start violating the agreement’s nuclear restrictions.

In an effort to restore the accord, three European countries worked closely with the United States. Russia was supportive of the Vienna-based U.N. nuke watchdog that tracks Iran’s falling compliance.

China has, however, undercut U.S. leverage and bought Iranian oil. This gave Tehran an economic boost in violation U.S. sanctions.

Diplomats stated that one way to force Iran into the original agreement or to agree to another is to convince Beijing and Moscow Tehran is Iran’s obstacle.

Unnamed diplomat from the West said, “They have to need China and Russia.”

SHIFTING YOUR ONUS

Washington is initially responsible for Trump’s withdraw and reimposition sanctions against Iran. However, President Joe Biden may shift the blame to Tehran in his efforts to restore the pact.

Six rounds of indirect talks were held in Vienna by U.S. officials and Iranian officials between April and June. A new round begins on Nov. 29 after a five-month hiatus triggered by the election of a new Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline cleric who said this month that Iran would not back down https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-raisi-vows-no-retreat-nuclear-talks-with-major-powers-2021-11-04 in nuclear talks.

U.S.- and European diplomats find it difficult to accept Iran’s unrealistic demands. This includes what one describes as a recent insistent that any U.S. or EU sanctions placed since 2017 be lifted. They also have low expectations of the outcome of the talks.

These talks are a chance for Iran to decide if they want to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. If not, Washington will try to gain more support from China.

A second diplomat from the West said that “the Russians are more helpful than China.” According to the diplomat, diplomacy is more effective than sanctioning Chinese oil companies.

The diplomat added, “We need to talk with China and get them onside.”

During their meeting this week, Biden and Xi Jinping from China discussed ways to align their positions ahead of the Vienna talks.

“GOOD OLD COLEGE TRY”

A third diplomat from Western countries stated that major powers believed the stronger their cooperation, the better chances they had of getting Iran back into the accord.

“It becomes more crucial when we reach a key point in our discussions,” the diplomat stated, referring specifically to the next round as well as Western hopes for China to reduce its oil purchase.

Robert Einhorn from Brookings Institution said Washington could want to demonstrate that it has gone above and beyond to bring about the renewal of the accord.

Einhorn explained, “It is important to (make) a college try…but if that fails, ensure that Iran is the reason for failure.”

It could be helpful to shift the responsibility to Tehran even if Washington decides that the original agreement is dead, but still tries to make another one.

According to the State Department, diplomacy will be pursued even if it is impossible to save the JCPOA.

We want Iran to make a choice on the way forward. A U.S. official spoke on condition of anonymity to say that this is our main focus and not who we should blame.

“We don’t think Iran has any right to continue building its nuclear weapons program, and we aren’t ignorant of the fact that talks go at snail’s rate. He said that we are adapting to Iran’s actions while trying to salvage the JCPOA – in good will.”

“One day, we will decide with our partners whether it is worthwhile saving the JCPOA. But we are far from there. It would be wrong, however, to presume that our policies are static.”

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