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Turkish lira falls before central bank meeting

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Turkish Lira

Mehmet Kalkan

The Turkish liraThe slide was continued on Thursday ahead of Thursday’s central banking meeting.

The currency dropped to 10.98 dollars against the dollar but recovered some of its losses. It traded at 10.72 Thursday afternoon in Asia.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday sent the lira spiraling when he said he will continue to fight to bring interest rates down. Erdogan stated previously that interest rates were “the devil”, and that lower rates would reduce inflation. This is in stark contrast to the belief of most economists.

President Obama also fired multiple central bank policymakers this yearNaci Agbal (central bank chief), who increased the main interest rate of the country during his tenure in that position.

MUFG Bank stated that the currency may fall further, even though it has plunged by 30% already this year.

Ehsan Khaman, EMEA head for emerging markets research at Bank, stated that “we remain firmly directionally negative on the Lira due to the central bank’s resolutedovish biases and tolerance for currency depreciation.” in an email sent by CNBC.

We believe the current policy mix is unsustainable. Rates will have to go up in 2022.

Ehsan Khoman

MUFG is the head of EMEA emerging market research

According to Reuters, the central bank will likely cut rates by 100 basis point to 15%. In its October meeting, it slashed rates 200 basis points.

The report stated that the recent inflation was due to “transitory factors,” but acknowledged rising prices leave limited room for further rate cuts.

Khoman from MUFG said that if the central bank relaxes its policy, it could lead to more dollarization and a further weakness of the lira, as well as additional inflationary pressures.

He stated that the policy mix is not sustainable and rates would need to increase in 2022 to stabilize the Lira, anchor expectations and foster price stability.

— CNBC’s Natasha Turak contributed to this report.

Correction: This article was corrected to reflect Ehsan Khaman’s title.

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