Markets should perform well over the Thanksgiving week, according to history.

The S&P 500 was slightly higher in the past week, buoyed by positive economic reports, particularly the unexpectedly strong 1.7% jump in October’s retail sales.The week ahead will bring a variety of economic reports. Personal consumption expenditures on Wednesday are the most significant release. This includes the Federal Reserve’s most closely watched inflation measure.

According to Sam Stovall (chief investment strategist at CFRA), “The five last trading days of November are historically positive” since 1950. There’s a 2/3 chance that the market will rise on the Friday before Thanksgiving; 57% probability on the Tuesday after Thanksgiving; 71% likely it will rise on Monday.

The Federal Reserve Chairman could decide whether the holiday rally will continue this year. Jerome PowellContinues his duties after his term ends in February. Biden also interviewed Fed Governor Lael BrainardHe is supported by progressive Democrats.

Strategists expect market volatility around the appointmentBrainard is a good choice, especially if she’s the one who suggested it. Her outlook is more conservative than Powell’s, which could mean she will be slow to increase interest rates. The market has been concerned by high levels of inflation. Brainard is not likely to be as aggressive against it, raising interest rates if required.

ClearBridge Investments’ Jeff Schulze said that unless there is a shift at the Fed’s helm, the market trend will continue to rise as we approach 2022. “Given Brainard’s even more dovish attitude than Powell, I believe the markets would rebound very quickly… markets are unsure if the new Fed Chairman could achieve consensus within the FOMC in order to effectively deliver policy,” Schulze added.

Schulze stated that the economy is showing signs of improvement and that he anticipates the fourth quarter gross domestic product to be double-digits. disappointing 2% pace3. Wednesday will see the release of the second GDP reading for the Third Quarter.

This week has seen the following: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indexAlso, the mid-Atlantic region showed steady and better than expected activity. Schulze commented, “It confirms that, despite supply-side constraints and the slowdown in Q3, the recovery has been on track.” I believe the market will price in higher earnings when we get into fourth quarter earnings and 2022.

Stovall indicated that there may be a period of pause in the market before it continues to move higher. He also expects a turbulent period. The S&P 500 gains on average 7.2% between its October low and the end of the year. But by early November, the S&P 500 was up more than 9% from its low, and was overbought, he said.

Stovall stated that markets could be concerned once again about Covid spreading in Europe, and elsewhere. A high incidence of new cases means that the market is at risk. government of Austria announced a three-week lockdownA mandate for vaccines.

The Austrian news was bad for stocks on Friday. However, the tech-rich Nasdaq saw a positive reaction. The week ended mixed with stocks. DowThe decrease was 1.4% NasdaqTech stock gains boosted the S&P 500 by 1.2% The S&P 500 was up 0.3% for the week, ending at 4,697.

“There’s still potential upside. He said that the market’s overbought situation should be resolved by Covid and inflation concerns. Stovall said that while the market may move in a different direction for a time, it will end the year with fewer buyers. He said that right now there is a little bit of choppiness due to Covid. “But right now the Fed chair may be replaced the worry about inflation now and a variety of other things.”

Wells Fargo bonds strategists advise investors to pay attention to the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield. They point out that Treasury yields move down on Mondays and Tuesdays before Thanksgiving.

Their conclusion was simple and basically the same as the one for Labor Day moves: the risk appetite on the sell and buy sides is low. However, yields tend to increase later in the week starting Wednesday.

Earnings: Zoom Video,Jack in The Box Agilent, Urban Outfitters

10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

Tuesday

Earnings: HP,Dell Technologies Abercrombie & Fitch, Best Buy, Nordstrom, Gap, VMWare, Cracker Barrel, American Eagle Outfitters, Dick’s Sporting GoodsPure Storage, AutoDesk Dollar Tree,JM Smoker

9.45 AM Manufacturing PMI

9:45 AM Services PMI

Wednesday

Earnings: Deere

8:30 a.m. 8.30 a.m. Initial jobless claims

8:30 a.m. Durable goods

8.30 a.m.

8:15 a.m. Economic indicators

10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

10:00 a.m. 10:00 a.m.

10:00 a.m. New home sales

2:00 p.m. FOMC meeting minutes

Thursday

Thanksgiving holiday

U.S. Markets Closed

Friday

The stock market will close at noon