Geoffrey Smith

Investing.com — Another winter, another Covid surge in Europe – and another lockdown and economic slowdown?

The sense of déjà vu is powerful, but probably not as worrying as it seems. The West has both the ability and the desire to make sure that the issue is not raised again. The slowdown caused by public health measures in the coming months must be short and shallow.

True, the news is – at first glance – bad. Austria has been infected for over a month. In Germany, the infection rate is now at its highest level ever. In the seven last days, there has been an average of 51,000 new Covid-19 cases. In Poland and the Netherlands, the situation is similar.

Germany should be a concern. A key driver of European growth, any new restrictions in Germany would have greater consequences for the Eurozone overall. The policymakers remain behind the curve, disengaged by the September national elections (as India did earlier in the year). The incoming coalition government – still to be confirmed in office – lacks the authority to act decisively.

Hundreds of millions across the continent who have been vaccinated are shocked to find out that their actions haven’t managed to banish the threat of mass lockdowns to prevent health services being overwhelmed. This is partly because officials’ earlier predictions were unrealistic.

“Delta has changed a lot regarding the level of vaccination and natural infection needed to get to herd immunity,” Peter Piot, a virologist who is special advisor to the European Commission, told the Greek newspaper KathimeriniInterview published Monday. “That percentage has now risen to perhaps around 90%, when in the beginning we thought it would be around 70%.”

About 70% of Europeans are fully-vaccinated. The problem is that a small number of people have declined to get vaccinated. The data suggests they have a point – infection rates have been highest where vaccination rates have been lowest – in central and eastern Europe.

It is notable that infection rates are lower in Ireland and Spain (which boast 92% vaccination rates) and France (where government has not been as feisty than Germany in temporarily suspending individuals rights to motivate people to have the vaccine). Austria now has the. This is not likely to be the final.

The growing intolerance, both among policymakers and the population at large, of those who still refuse the jab was pointedly summed up by Jens Spahn, health minister in the outgoing center-right German government, on Monday, who warned that “By the end of this winter, pretty much everyone in Germany will probably either be vaccinated, recovered or dead.”

The subtext was clear: no-one wants to put all life on hold again to cater to people who won’t protect themselves against Covid. This sets up a divisive series of events that will be exacerbated by new European lockdowns.

The good news is that there are no signs of things getting worse. First, every Covid wave has an end. In eastern Europe, where the Delta-variant first hit, there is already a decline in the number of cases. The second reason for the current wave is due to waning immunity, booster shots can be used as a straightforward and cost-effective defense.

Thirdly, European regulators will – most likely – approve vaccination for children aged between 5 and 11 next week, shutting down another significant channel of transmission and ensuring that schools remain open. A number of antiviral medications developed by Merck (NYSE) will be approved for use in fourth grade. Pfizer (NYSE:) and Regeneron (NASDAQ:) (others are still being developed) are all likely to be approve “well before spring,” according to Piot. Britain, having already abrogated most of its restrictions regarding social distancing during the summer, and seeing infections plummet rather than increase, has already approved Merck’s drug, Molnupravir. It is expected to be approved by the EU regulators.

Finally, it is evident that the European economy already has a lot of experience with Covid-19. The hard work has been done, from flexible working patterns to online shopping and social distancing. Except for an unforeseeable disaster, this Christmas will be a good one.