By David Alire Garcia

TEGUCIGALPA – The Honduran president candidate has vowed to accept China and diminish Taiwan ties if she is elected. It was a diplomatic gesture that prompted tension between Washington and Beijing, as both seek influence over the Central American country.

Honduras is home to just under 10,000,000 people. The country also belongs to a small group of countries in Central America, the Caribbean and Central America that have relations with Taiwan (which China considers a province of danger).

Xiomara Cruz, a leftist Honduran presidential candidate, stated in her election manifesto she would “ofcourse” try to establish formal ties to Beijing if elected.

But, this was just after a strangely-timed U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere visit by Brian Nichols to Honduras. The Castro aide who wrote and signed the manifesto stated that there has not been a final decision.

Castro’s principal opponent, Tegucigalpa Mayor Nasry asfura hasn’t yet stated his position on China but most expect him to keep the current policy. In an opinion poll last month, Asfura was 17 points behind Castro. However, another poll indicated a tie.

China’s Foreign Ministry brought up the accusation that the United States was “arm-twisting in Honduras” ahead of this weekend’s vote.

Dan Restrepo was the U.S. National Security Advisor for Latin America under President Barack Obama.

He said that the Chinese were more active than ever and that recognition was very important for them.

Taiwan claims it will honor the results of the election but warns Honduras about China’s “flashy, false” promises.

China recently gained the support of several Latin American countries in its efforts to isolate Taiwan’s self-governing island. These allies include the Dominican Republic, El Salvador and El Salvador.

An anonymous senior U.S. State Department official stated that President Joe Biden’s government would love to see Honduran–Taiwanese ties continued, something also emphasised this week by the Nichols led U.S. delegation.

The official said to a group of reporters that they had spoken with both the top candidates. He did not detail their replies.

A senior U.S. official said that Washington now believes Castro has a better understanding of their stance, and she hopes she’ll take this into account if she wins.

CHINESE INVESTOR

This could result in more Chinese investment in Honduras. Honduras is the third most poor country in Americas.

Geovany Pinda, a Honduran avocado farmer, also serves as the leader of a farmers association. She is wary that China might outweigh Taiwan for agricultural assistance.

He points out a Taiwanese program, which has given away nearly $4 million for local avocado production over the past three years. But he thinks Honduras might get better deals.

“I heard that China provides more assistance to countries which have relations,” he stated.

However, not all are convinced and it could lead to weakening of ties with America.

Juan Carlos Sikaffy is the chief of Honduras’ top business lobby COHEP. He argues that China accounts for only a fifth Honduran imports, and there are no formal diplomatic ties, but U.S. companies have more to offer.

He stated that it was not economically in the United States’ interest to maintain (diplomatic) relations China. However, he cited the lower transport cost from China’s northern port as a reason for moving to Honduras American businesses.

U.S. Senator Tim Kaine is a lawmaker and heads the chamber’s Western Hemisphere Subcommittee. He said that Chinese investment in Latin America had a poor record. He cited last April’s election in Ecuador, where a pro American candidate won. This was after several Chinese investments were made. He also criticized his predecessors for their substandard constructions.

He offered warnings to Honduran leaders about the future.

“I am not trying to tell countries how to run their foreign policies,” he stated. But, if you want closer and closer relationships with China, it is likely that you will be fleeced.

China’s foreign ministry didn’t immediately respond to questions about Kaine’s comments.

Honduras, Taiwan and China have had a diplomatic relation since 1941. That was before Taiwan’s Republic of China fled to Taiwan in response to the Chinese civil war.

China-Taiwan friction has risen since President Xi Jinping took a hard line against Hong Kong. It has fueled speculation that he might push to absorb the territory Beijing considers its own.

After Taiwanese officials expressed concern about Castro’s election promise, Juan Orlando Hernandez, the outgoing Honduran president made an unexpected visit to Taipei earlier this month.