Stock Groups

What’s on our radar for next week

[ad_1]

Traders are seen on the New York Stock Exchange’s floor on November 5, 2021.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

(This article was originally sent to Jim Cramer and members of CNBC Investing Club. Get the latest updates directly to your email subscribe here.)

The S&P 500 pulled back during this holiday shortened trading week, largely attributable to a Friday sell-off resulting from renewed COVID fears following news of a new “heavily-mutated variant” Discovered in South Africa. Although the economy is sensitive, Dow Jones Industrial Average was the hardest hit on Friday, the Nasdaq was the main underperformer this week thanks to a rotation out of high flying tech heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.

Our strategy

We felt that some of the Friday action was very unusual, feeling like it was knee-jerk with shut down plays. Zoom Video (ZM)And Peloton (PTON)The market was able to catch an almost instant bid, while financials and energy names were left aside. It is still too early to decide whether the market will go one way or the other because not enough information is available about the new version. It is difficult to gauge sentiment when volumes are lower than usual.

We did, however, provide some thoughts earlier today on where we think members should be looking for opportunity, we opted to stay on the sidelines on Friday and preserve cash until we have more actionable information from the scientific community.

The index is down this week due to consumer discretionary and communication services. Technology led the way with the majority of sectors falling after Friday’s decline. For the week, and energy  actually gained on the period despite Friday’s sizable losses because of a pop earlier in the week.

We learned some important lessons this week

Below is a brief overview of some other market measures that we enjoy keeping an eye on. The $1,800 mark was where gold recovered. WTI crude oil prices fell to $70 per barrel on Friday. The 10-year Treasury hovers around 1.5% as COVID worries hit the market.

We heard about the portfolio from American Eagle Outfitters (AEO). Here’s our breakdown of the results.

This week, in addition to the earnings we also received several notable macroeconomic readings.

The National Association of Realtors announced Monday that October’s existing home sales rose 0.8%, which is better than the 1.8% decrease Street expected. The October reading shows that sales have fallen 5.8% compared to the previous year. Housing market remains under pressure because of the low inventory. The October inventory was 2.4 months, which is lower than September’s 2.5 month level. However, it still exceeds the 6 month level that many believe to be balanced between supply/demand. The lack of inventory is causing affordability problems. In October, the median home cost was $353,900 (+11.3%) YoY). Freddie Mac reported that October’s average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.07%. This is an increase from September’s 2.9%.

IHS Markit Group announced Tuesday that Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index November was 56.5. This is a decrease of 57.6 from October, and marks a two-month low. As with the ISM PMI numbers for November, any reading above 50 means that there has been an increase in the manufacturing sector. Anything below 50 is a sign of contraction. IHS Markit data comes from different companies than the ones used for ISM data. Additionally, this “Flash” data is based on roughly 85%-90% of expected survey data – data used in this report was collected between November 12 and November 22.

Flash U.S. Services PMI Business Activity Index dropped to 57.0 from 58.7 in Oct, missing expectations of 69.5. Flash U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), however, rose to 59.1 from 58.4 October, matching expectations. The Flash U.S. Manufacturing Output Index rose to 53.9 in November, from 52.1 in October.

Due to Friday’s early closing of markets, Wednesday saw no releases for the remainder of the week.

We learned in October that orders for manufactured durable goods dropped 0.5% to $260.1 trillion. It was lower than expected, at 0.2%. The 0.5% increase in new orders was not due to transportation equipment. This can cause monthly volatility as a result of higher prices for automobiles and airplanes. With the exception of defense equipment, there was an 0.8% increase in new orders for October.

Notably, core capital goods orders (non defense capital goods, except aircraft) fell 0.5% in October. This was below expectations of a 0.5% monthly increase.  The October shipment of core capital goods rose 1.5%, exceeding expectations of a 0.5% increase.

In addition, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the real gross domestic product, or GDP, increased by 2.1% in quarter three of 2021. This is a small decline from the 2.2% expected. Following a 6.7% rise in the first-quarter, this report is now available. Additionally, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — an important metric to monitor as the core PCE price index is the Fed’s favorite proxy for inflation and can therefore provide insight into future rate actions — increased 4.5% QoQ, a deceleration from the 6.1% QoQ gain seen in the second-quarter. Core PCE price Index was 3.6% higher than the 2.4% YoY increase in the previous quarter.

In October, personal income rose 0.5% to $93.4 billion. This is higher than the 0.2% expected. The DPI rose 0.3% to $63.0 billion, while personal consumption expenses (PCE, i.e. personal spending), increased 1.3% (213.3 billion) over the previous month. This was ahead of the 1.0% forecast. Adjusting for inflation, real DPI declined 0.3%, real PCE rose 0.7%, and the PCE priceindex increased 0.6%. Lastly, on an annual basis the core PCE price index — again, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — advanced 4.1% YoY, in line with expectations and a notable acceleration versus the 3.7% annual rate seen in September.

The Census Bureau also reported Wednesday that single-family house sales increased by 0.4% MoM to a seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR), of 745,000. This is below the 800,000 expected. The October increase in sales was offset by a decrease of 23.1% in the year-ago period. The median sale price of new homes was $407,000. While the average was $477,000. This is an increase from September’s $405,700 or $457,200.

Finally, U.S. Department of Labor reported initial jobless claims of 199,000 for the week ending November 20. That’s a 71,000 decrease in weekly claims and is well below 260,000 estimates. This was also the lowest initial claim level since November 15, 1969 when it was 197,000. This week, the reading of initial claims was higher at 270,000 than it had been previously reported.

The four-week moving mean, which is used to reduce weekly volatility, was 252,250. This represents a 21,000 decrease from the revised week average of 273,250. (Revised from 272,750). The moving average has fallen to 225,000.  

Watch out for what lies ahead

We are looking ahead to earnings season. Next week we’ll be hearing from Salesforce after the closing bell on Tuesday. Marvell Technology (MRVL)On Thursday after the closing bell

Below are the earnings for the week we’ll monitor:

Mon 11/29

Li Auto, Li Frontline (FRO), Open: Frontline

Weds 11:00/30

Open: Baozun (BZUN), Hello Group (MOMO), Jinko Solar (JKS)

Close: Salesforce (CRM), Ambarella (AMBA), Box (BOX), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), NetApp (NTAP), Zscaler (ZS)

Wed 12/1

Open: Patterson Companies, Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Patterson Companies

Close to: CrowdStrike (CRWD), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Descartes (DSGX), Elastic (ESTC), Five Below (FIVE), Okta (OKTA), PVH, PVH ), Semtech SMTC, Snowflake (SNOW), Splunk (SPLK), Synopsys SNPS), Veeva Systems VEEV), Zuora (ZUO).

Thurs 12/2

Open: Dollar General (DG), GMS (GMS), Kroger (KR), SecureWorks (SCWX), Signet Jewelers (SCWX)

Close: Marvell Technology – (MRVL), Asana – (ASAN), Cooper – (COO), DocuSign ­DOCU, Domo – (DOMO), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Ollie’s Bargain OLLI, Verint Systems — VRNT

Fri, 12/3

Open: Big Lots (BIG), Dole plc (DOLE), Genesco (GCO), Hibbett (HIBB)

Close:

In addition to monitoring the geopolitical environment, the macroeconomics front will be our focus. We’ll also keep an eye out for these releases (all times ET).

MONDAY

10:00  Pending Home Sales

10:30  Dallas Fed Index

TUESDAY

9:00  FHFA Home Price Index

9:00  S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

9:45  Chicago PMI 

10:00  Consumer Confidence

WEDNESDAY

8:15  ADP Employment Survey 

9:45  Markit PMI Manufacturing SA (Final)

10:00  Construction Spending 

10:00  ISM Manufacturing

14:00  FED Beige Book

THUESDAY

08:30 Jobless Claims

FRIDAY

08:30  Jobs report

9:45  Markit PMI Services 

10:00  Durable Orders

10:00  Factory Orders 

10:00  ISM Non Manufacturing AEO, CRM and MRVL

CNBC Investing Club now serves as the official residence of my Charitable Trust. You can view every portfolio move and receive my market insights before everyone else. Action Alerts Plus is not affiliated in any way with the Charitable Trust or my writings.

Subscribers to CNBC Investing Club will get a trade alert prior to Jim making a trade. Jim usually waits approximately 45 minutes to send a trade alert before purchasing or selling any stock within his charitable trust portfolio. Jim will wait five minutes until the market opens to execute a trade if the trade alert has been sent before the trade is executed. Jim executes trades if issued within 45 minutes of market opening. Jim can wait 72 hours before execution if the alert is issued after he’s spoken on CNBC TV about a stock. See here for the investing disclaimer.

 Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust has been AEO, CRM and MRVL for a long time.

[ad_2]