BEIJING (Reuters) – China could face more than 630,000 COVID-19 infections a day if it dropped its zero-tolerance policies by lifting travel curbs, according to a study by Peking University mathematicians.

In the report published in China CDC Weekly by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, the mathematicians said China could not afford to lift travel restrictions without more efficient vaccinations or specific treatments.

The mathematicians used data from August in the United States, Britain and Spain to assess the possible results of China adopting the same pandemic prevention strategies as these countries.

The report stated that China would have at least 637.155 new cases per day if it followed the United States pandemic strategy.

It said that daily cases could reach 275,793 in China if they followed the same path as Britain, and 454,198 if China imitated France.

The report stated that “the estimates showed the real possibility for a colossal epidemic which would almost certainly cause an unaffordable burden to the medical system.”

Our findings are a warning sign that we’re not yet ready to accept ‘open up’ strategies based on vaccination-induced herd immunity.

Mathematicians warned that they were only able to estimate the effects of travel restrictions on the pandemic, and more advanced models would be needed in order to understand the progression.

China maintains a zero tolerance policy toward COVID-19. It believes that the important of controlling local infections when they occur outweighs disruptions from efforts to isolate, trace and treat infected.

China reports 23 coronavirus confirmed cases in November 27th, a drop of 25 from the previous day.

Friday was the World Health Organization’s (WHO) designation of a COVID-19 variation with many mutations found in South Africa as “of concern,” prompting countries to put travel restrictions.