Six rounds of indirect negotiations, which were conducted by European mediators in April and June this year, did not break the deadlock between the countries. The election of Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline cleric from Iran, as Iran’s president scuttled negotiations. 

Raisi expressed support for the return of the agreement, but he also expressed distrust in the West. Tehran wants all sanctions to be lifted against Iran in order for Iran to slow down its increase in its nuclear activity. In the meantime, the Biden administration states that it will not lift sanctions until Iran corrects any violations of the JCPOA. 

Both the U.S. & Iran have agreed to reopen the agreement. The terms and processes of returning to the deal are being worked out, made harder by the domestic dynamics of both countries,” Sanam Vakil (deputy head, Middle East North Africa Program at Chatham House), told CNBC Monday.

This has made the whole process more complicated,” she stated.

For Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group think tank, the three issues at the core of the last talks and that need to be tackled this time around are “sanctions, nuclear, and sequencing” — sequencing referring to the order in which concessions are made and steps are taken by each side.

Vaez said in a Sunday Twitter thread that “none of these can ever be fully addressed apart from the other.” 

New developments, such as gridlock between Tehran’s and U.N. nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency, (IAEA), have made it difficult for talks to take place. The two sides failed to reach an agreement last week on one aspect of IAEA’s capability to monitor Iran’s nukes. Iran has refused to grant IAEA access its Karaj centrifuge manufacturing facility, and it is resumed production without IAEA supervision.

Eurasia’s Rome said that Iran failed to agree to even the most modest of concessions. “We had expected Iran would make some minor concessions as a way to reduce international pressure leading up to…the resumption or nuclear negotiations,” Rome noted on November 24. It is a negative indicator that Iran does not want to renegotiate the 2015 nuclear deal and has instead taken a tough line with IAEA.

Behnam Behnam, senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, echoed Behnam’s warnings that Tehran was blocking outside monitoring. This had been an integral part of the 2015 agreement.   

Iran’s game can be both complex and simple. Ben Taleblu stated that Iran’s game is complex and requires verification and monitoring. He also aims to increase the size and scope of his program to try to get America to reduce its bottom line. 

“There are reasons for confidence,” he said. He said, “Despite the talk of closing the door or window,” that the Biden administration had not indicated any willingness to revert a pressure policy which, in turn, underwrites Iran’s next round of escalation.” Moreover, there hasn’t been an IAEA board move to censure Iran, despite the country’s nuclear achievements.

Ben Taleblu stated, “Expect much posture from Iran in days ahead.” 

Their economy needs urgent relief, despite the optimism projected by Iranian leaders. Vaez posted on Twitter Sunday, “optimism that borders on fantasy” when he said Raisi insists the economy can be revived even without sanction relief. Even the extension of economic ties to neighbours is subject to a strict ceiling in case JCPOA fails.

Vaez, along with other experts, believes that the single most urgent factor right now is time.

“The combination of long hiatus, nuclear advances & inconclusive IAEA talks means the clock — already ticking between Apr-Jun — is all the more of a factor now,” Vaez said. “Footdragging and logjams, which were very serious back then, are very worrying now.