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Euro zone inflation hits record high in likely peak -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO – People go to the Breitscheid Square Christmas Market, Berlin, Germany. This was during the COVID-19 pandemic. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch

FRANKFURT, (Reuters) – The Euro zone’s inflation rose to the highest level in over a year due to rising energy prices. This likely triggered a sharp decline which will continue for much of next year. Data from Eurostat was released Tuesday.

In November, the consumer price growth rate in the 19 Euro-sharing countries rose to 4.9%, which is far higher than the previous month’s 4.1% and much better than the expected 4.5%.

As oil prices rose, energy prices increased 27%. However, inflation in non-energy goods and services, which have been a drag on prices growth over the past few years, was above 2%. This suggests that there has been a significant rise in prices.

Despite the fact that inflation has risen to more than twice what the European Central Bank’s 2% goal, there is no reason to expect any action.

The ECB has always maintained that inflation is temporary and caused by a variety of unique factors. It will recede over time. Therefore, policy actions now are counterproductive because they would impede economic growth when it eases.

Some policymakers warn that inflation could cause a spike in wages. But, ECB President Christine Lagarde (chief economist) and Philip Lane dismissed the argument. They said that wage growth is still anaemic and there’s no evidence that firms have permanently changed their remuneration patterns.

The ECB promises continued stimuli with bond purchases and record-low rates through 2022. This is despite the fact that many central banks worldwide are tightening their policies.

Potential headache: Inflation could now take months for it to fall and remain higher than the ECB’s target up until the second-half of 2022. A communication problem for a bank who has been struggling with low inflation over a decade, and is not familiar with high price growth.

The price of the underlying components, which are important for policymakers because they do not include volatile energy and food prices, has also risen.

Both the inflation that excludes food and fuel prices as well as a more narrow measure that includes alcohol products and tobacco products rose to 2.6%. They were both far above what was expected at 2.3%.

Lane said that although both those numbers were quite high, Lane had dismissed them in recent weeks. She argued they reflect post-pandemic conditions and are therefore not accurate indicators of actual price growth.

Next meeting of the ECB is scheduled for Dec. 16. It will almost certainly end a 1.85 Trillion euro emergency bond purchasing scheme, but it will likely increase other measures to replace that lost stimulus.

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