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Japan panel says May 2020 marked latest business cycle bottom -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: This is a view of a Japanese businessman as he walks across a street in Tokyo’s business district on December 8, 2015. Japan avoided recession in its third quarter, with an initial forecast of a contraction being revised to an annualized expansion

TOKYO, Reuters – The COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan brought an end almost three years of economic decline.

The government-established panel provisionally declared on Tuesday that the economy ended its latest recession and entered a boom in May 2020, when early coronavirus restrictions hit households and businesses.

According to panel members, the end of downturn was technically marked by the shock from the health crisis. Most indicators declined below the threshold that the panel defined as the bottom.

Hiroshi Yashikawa, President of Rissho Univ., who chaired the Cabinet Office-convened panel, stated that “We agreed” May 2020 represented the economy’s bottom… when consumption fell and other indicators declined.

Similar to the United States’ National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle dating panel, the panel discusses the official business cycle chronology, which is based on 10 indicators like industrial output, exports and retail sales, as well as job availability.

American counterparts announced that in July, the U.S. economy had reached its latest bottom in April 2020. This was the second-shortest recorded recession of just two months.

The Japanese panel announced last year that Japan’s economy had reached its prior peak when it was hit by the escalating U.S. China trade war. This halted 71 months worth of growth, which is the longest period in recorded history.

The panel stated that the recession of 2009 was likely to have lasted 19 months, ending in May 2013. Japan is currently experiencing an economic boom.

Yoshikawa said that “these business cycle peak and troughs” are mechanically determined based upon government statistics. He also stated that “it’s another matter what the Japanese economy has done,” referring to the economic contractions of the first and third quarters this year.

According to Reuters, China’s third-largest country is likely to see an annualized 5.1% growth this quarter following a stronger-than-expected 3.0% contraction between July and September, a poll by analysts from Reuters found. In addition, household spending will increase due to eased restrictions.

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