Short bets on Asian FX rise as Omicron uncertainty grips markets: Reuters poll -Breaking
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© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: This illustration was taken February 10, 2020. It shows the U.S. Dollar banknotes and Chinese Yuan. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration//File PhotoBy Harish Sridharan
(Reuters] – As a result of the possible vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant being detected and subsequent mobility restrictions by many countries, investors became more bearish about most Asian currencies. This was according to a Reuters poll that was released on Thursday.
The trend for bullish betting on the Indonesian currency rupiah reversed and the Malaysian ringgit rose. However, short positions on South Korean won and the Singaporean dollar rose according to a poll that included 10 people.
But, the long-term bets placed on the Yuan have consolidated. They are at their highest levels since early June due to the strong corporate demand. It gained against broad dollar strength.
Traders believe that strong corporate demand, China’s stringent virus regulations and travel restrictions will continue to support the Yuan. [CNY/]
Analysts at Maybank stated that the Omicron coronavirus variant “is the most recent uncertainty in the pandemic global and adds fuel to the demand CNY, given China’s zero-Covid Management that could confer some safe-haven quality currency.”
Many Asian countries already have closed their borders to people from many southern African countries, including South Africa where this variant was discovered for the first time.
Sim Moh Siong (a Bank of Singapore FX strategist) said that Omicron’s contagiousness, severity of infection, and effectiveness of vaccines are the most crucial things you need to know.
Omicron is more dangerous than previously thought. Financial markets have been rattled by early indications. However, new regulations could prevent any recovery from the economic damage caused by the pandemic.
Siong explained that “the Omicron variant creates uncertainties about the speed at which economies can reopen now.”
Authorities in Singapore had earlier said this week that they would not open any more reopening procedures, even though the state was closing in on immunizing all COVID-19-eligible people.
Short-term bets on Singaporean dollars rose to the highest levels since mid-2018.
After cutting two weeks ago, investors raised their bearish wagers on the currency. The possibility of travel restrictions could derail Thailand’s attempts to revitalize its tourism sector.
Following the hawkish remarks by Jerome Powell (US Federal Reserve Chairman), an end to US crisis-level interest rate in America is in sight. This has sparked further selling of riskier assets in Asia.
As South Korea’s coronavirus infections reached new heights, investors also increased their short-term positions in the won. Authorities temporarily stopped exempting travellers who had been fully vaccinated from quarantine.
This poll focuses on the market position of nine Asian emerging currency currencies. It includes the South Korean won (, South Korean won), Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupee, Taiwan Dollar, Taiwan Dollar, and the Indian rupee.
On a scale from minus 3 to plus 3, the poll estimates net short or long positions. Plus 3 is a sign that the market has significant length in U.S. dollar.
Figures include forwards that are not deliverable (NDFs).
These are the results of our survey (positions in U.S. Dollar versus each other):
DATE USD/C USD/KUSD/S USD/I US/I/M/USD/
NY RW GD DR WD NR YR PHP
02-Dec -0.88 1.06 0.58 0.15 0.00 0.47 0.28 0.26 0.71
-21
18-Nov -0.87 0.48 0.07 -0.72 -0.15 0.08 -0.04 0.24 0.12
-21
04-Nov -0.51 0.63 -0.09 -0.41 0.10 0.54 -0.07 0.27 0.66
-21
21-Oct -0.55 0.91 -0.27 -1.12 0.30 0.70 0.10 0.44 1.10
-21
07-Oct 0.27 1.35 0.20 -0.29 0.28 0.10 0.30 0.84 1.20
-21
23-Sep 0.25 0.96 -0.15 -0.50 -0.20 -0.45 0.25 0.56 0.75
-21
09-Sep -0.09 0.33 -0.36 -0.44 -0.69 -0.88 0.23 0.40 0.12
-21
26-Aug 0.43 0.87 0.47 0.18 0.33 -0.08 1.19 0.78 1.35
-21
12-Aug 0.32 0.69 0.77 0.20 -0.09 0.37 1.39 1.17 1.75
-21
29-Jul 0.27 0.78 0.71 0.27 0.36 0.29 1.4 1.21 1.49
y-21
15-Jul -0.15 0.27 0.53 0.23 0.13 0.68 1.06 1.06 1.56
y-21
01-Jul -0.29 -0.29 0.02 0.36 -0.19 0.5 0.49 -0.0 0.85
y-21 4
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