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Omicron Covid variant’s risk profile starts to emerge with early data

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On November 30, 2021, a healthcare worker conducted PCR Covid-19 tests at the Lancet Johannesburg laboratory.

AFP | AFP | Getty Images

Preliminary data about the severity of the omicron Covid variant is “a bit encouraging,” the White House’s Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Sunday, following early figures from South Africa that suggest it may not be as bad as initially feared.

Fauci said that additional data were needed to provide a full picture of the risk profile for omicrons. On Nov. 26, the World Health Organization declared that this variant is “of concern”. This prompted a series of travel bans around the world and Covid restrictions.

“Clearly, South Africa has an omicron transmission advantage.” Fauci told CNN“It’s still too early to be able to make definitive statements, but it doesn’t seem like it has a high degree of severity,” he said.

Fauci stated that “but we have to be cautious before we make any decisions about whether it is more severe or causes any serious illness comparable with delta”, but the signs are encouraging so far regarding its severity.

According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the variant has been detected in at least fifteen states across America as of Sunday. That number is likely to increase, Walensky said.

The omicron variant is causing a surge in Covid-related cases in South Africa, and an increase in hospitalizations. Due to the uncertainties surrounding the omicron Covid variant experts closely monitor the real-world data out of South Africa.

Data preliminary

The South African Medical Research Council released a report on Saturday that suggested the strain might cause milder infections. Given the limited data available and the recent detection of the strain, it’s difficult to say if there is a higher risk of death.

The report also revealed that more younger people were being admitted to hospital with omicron Covid infections, but this could be related to lower rates of vaccination among such age groups in South Africa.

The following document describes what has happened at Steve Biko/Tshwane District Hospital Complex (Gauteng), where omicron was detected for the first time. This complex is currently experiencing a rapid rise in Covid patients.

The report’s main finding was that patients weren’t oxygen dependent (as is common with previous waves), and that many of those in Covid wards had been admitted for “incidental Covid reasons”; they were hospitalized because of another medical reason.

This is in line with anecdotal evidence from South African doctors that the Omicron variant may cause milder symptoms. South African doctors first discovered the virus. One doctor said that she experienced milder symptoms than her patients. However, no official data has supported these observations.

Profile of age

However, the report — which only looked at a small number of patients — noted that: “what is clear though is that the age profile is different from previous waves.”

The report analyzed 166 hospitalized patients between Nov. 14 and 29. It found that the “age profile” differed significantly from the 18-months prior, with more children and adults being admitted to hospital.

“In the past two weeks, not fewer than 80 percent of admissions were under 50 years.” This corresponds to the average age of admissions at all Gauteng Province public and private hospitals over the past two weeks.

According to the report, the rise in hospital admissions among younger patients could have been due to lower vaccination rates for younger adults.

The new Omicron coronavirus strain spreads at Tsomo in South Africa. This is a woman who was wearing COVID-19 (protective face mask) and has a plastic bag covering her head.

Siphiwe Sibeko | Reuters

According to the report, there was no Covid-related death among the 34 children admitted in pediatric Covid wards during the two week period.

Noting that patient data is only for the Tshwane District’s first two weeks.

It’s still early in the day

Although these early results may seem encouraging, they should be kept in context. They are only preliminary data from a few people.

The omicron variant or B.1.1.529, as it is formally called, was first reported to the WHO (by South Africa on Nov. 24, with the first known sample dating back to Nov. 9) the UN health agency warned that some of the mutations found in the variant are associated with higher transmission and the ability to escape immune protection.

“We see an increasing rate of growth, increasing numbers of microns being detected,” Maria Van Kerkhove (the WHO’s Covid-19 technical leader) said Friday during a briefing. There is some evidence that transmittibility is increasing. What we must understand, however is whether it is more transmissible than delta.

While there were an increase in hospitalizations in South Africa she said that the public health officials had not yet seen an increased death risk, but they are still waiting for more data.

Experts and manufacturers of vaccines have warned that it may take weeks before the variant’s real risk profile is known. They also cautioned about its possible response to existing Covid vaccines.

Cyril Ramaphosa is the South African president said in a statement MondayIt was urgent that citizens get immunized, as “scientific evidence suggests that vaccinations are the best way to prevent the spread of infections and reduce the severity of illness and hospitalisation, which in turn leads to less death.”

He said, “While we don’t know the impact of the omicron variation on hospital admissions yet, we have been preparing for hospitals to admit greater numbers of patients and are looking at how we can rapidly secure medication to treat Covid-19.”

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