Biden aims to prevent Russia-Ukraine conflict, but time is running out
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Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the Valdai Discussion Club’s plenary Meeting, October 21st,2021, Sochi, Russia.
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The U.S. President Joe Biden will likely give a speech Russian President Vladimir Putin a stark warningExperts warn that the U.S. must stop any further aggression against Ukraine in a Tuesday video conference.
This is despite fears Russia may launch a military operation against Ukraine, following Russian troop movements along the Ukrainian border and increasing aggression towards Kiev by Moscow.
Putin, for his part, stated that Russia is concerned by military exercises being conducted in Ukraine near its border. He claimed these were a danger to Moscow.
He insisted Russia has the right to send troops to its territories and denied that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine.
Close followers of Russian politics are not convinced that Russia’s intentions toward Ukraine — which was a part of the Soviet Union until its dissolution in 1991 — are benign, however.
Many experts (and Ukrainian leaders) believe that Putin — who said in 2005 that the break up of the union was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century” — harbors a desire to rebuild the Soviet empire, with Russia often seeking to extend, or impose, its influence on former Soviet republics like Belarus and Ukraine. Russia is opposed to Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO and its neighbour, the EU.
There is no compromise
Experts also doubt that Biden and allies in Europe can reach a deal with Putin. They warn that there is a window of opportunity for peaceful solution to the growing tensions among Russia, Ukraine, and the West.
Russia expert Timothy Ash, a senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said the Putin-Biden call would likely be “very difficult” and that it was “hard to see where the compromises will come from.”
“Putin seeks security guarantees that there will be no more NATO enlargement or non-aligned status to Ukraine. He also wants restrictions on Ukraine’s rearmament, NATO troop presences and a halt to any further NATO expansion. Biden cannot give these, and Ukraine would never agree — unless under extreme duress,” Ash said in a note Monday evening.
To buy Ukraine time to rebuild its defenses, Biden will resort to sanctions as well as the carrot of further talks. [The]The question here is: “Is Putin willing to wait?”
Ash also said Putin could be thinking it’s the perfect time to impose his will on Ukraine or the West.
Russia is looking for
For weeks there have been reports that Russia has increased its presence at Ukraine’s frontier. This movement has prompted NATO Secretary General Jens Scholtenberg, to issue a warning. NATO members should prepare for the worst when it comes to Russia and Ukraine.
It doesn’t really matter if the probability of an incursion being 20% or 80%. “We need to prepare for the worst.” Stoltenberg told reporters on Nov.30 after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Riga, Latvia.
The NATO chief stated that there is not certainty or clarity as to Russian intentions and suggested they could evolve and change. He also noted “they’ve done this before”, referring specifically to Crimea.
Russia annexed Crimea to Ukraine in 2014. It has been charged with sending weapons and troops to help pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine’s Donbass region. Moscow refutes this accusation.
Maxim Samorukov (a Carnegie Moscow Center Fellow) wrote that Monday’s post was “Putin being more direct about the things he wants for Ukraine and the extent to which he’s willing to go in order to achieve it.”
Putin stated that in just days he wanted a deal to stop Ukraine joining NATO. Putin also desires a Western commitment to never deploy NATO military infrastructures in Ukraine. Samorukov said in an editorial.
The Kremlin had sent messages to the U.S. over the past year. He said that Russia places great importance on Ukraine. The second is that Russia is losing patience and ready to take drastic steps to rectify the situation.
Reuters has obtained an unclassified U.S. intelligence report that clearly shows Russian military activity near Russia’s border with Ukraine.
Reuters
Putin wants Biden finally to face an unfavorable dilemma. It is clear that Washington must prepare for Ukraine’s defeat militarily. This would mean a repeat of the recent Afghan events. It can also compromise with Moscow and accept defeat in Ukraine, Samorukov stated.
According to him, the Kremlin is not frightened that Russia will choose the first option. However, the Kremlin wants to persuade the United States to accept those expenses due to Ukraine’s importance for Russian national interest.
Allies involved
All NATO, European, and U.S. officials warned Russia not to attack Ukraine militarily, warning Moscow of serious economic and political consequences. Russia is currently under international sanctions due to its annexed Crimea.
The military alliance does not have to protect Ukraine because it is not part of NATO. It is therefore uncertain how far the U.S. or EU will go to defend Ukraine.
According to Downing Street spokespersons, leaders from France, Germany, Italy, USA, U.K. and the United Kingdom spoke Monday night about increasing tensions between Russia, Ukraine, and Russia.
They stated that “they stressed the necessity to provide a united front face to Russian threats and hostility”, and added that they called on Russia to “de-escalate tensions” and reiterated their support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
According to the spokesperson, they will again speak after Biden has spoken with Putin. According to the spokesperson, Putin-Biden’s video conference is expected to occur around 3 p.m. According to Reuters: London time
Russia doesn’t seem to be optimistic about the meeting. The Kremlin said Monday that the U.S.-Russia relationship was “very lamentable” on the eve before the conference.
Russia is still looking eastwards to Asia in order to establish diplomatic and trade ties. At a New Delhi bilateral meeting on Monday, Putin met Narendra Modi (Indian Prime Minister) and signed more than 200 deals.
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