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Latest sign of President Biden’s inflation problem is on Main Street

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The U.S. president Joe Biden addresses CEOs from companies across a range of industries during a meeting to discuss holiday shopping at the White House, Washington, November 29, 20,21.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

In one significant way, the politics of small-business owners are similar to those of the vast majority of Americans: they have become hyperpartisan. However, President Joe Biden’s approval ratings among entrepreneurs drop to an all time low while Main Street confidence rises back to its lowest point since the beginning of Biden’s presidency in 2021.

All the latest CNBC|Momentive Small Business SurveyThe data shows that small businesses are less confident and Biden is not as popular. Respondents who identified themselves as independents were most responsible. Inflation concerns had a significant influence on the data.

The survey shows that while concerns about the labour shortage are still high, more small-business owners are facing higher prices and disruptions to their supply chains. 75% of respondents said they were experiencing higher supply cost, up 70% from the third quarter. 58% reported experiencing disruptions in their supply chains, an increase from 55%.

With 34% of owners of small businesses citing inflation as their biggest concern, it is followed by disruptions to supply chains (23%) or Covid (17%). Momentive conducted the survey between November 10-16th, 2021 with 2,078 small-business owners. This was prior to news about the omicron.

Main Street is being hurt by Biden’s economic policies

Now, only 34% of small-business owners approve of Joe Biden’s job as President. This is down from 43% approval in Q3 and 40% in Q1. This decrease is mainly among independents. 33% approve now of Biden, compared to 51% in Q3. Quarter over quarter, there were little changes in approval for Republicans (9%) as well as Democrats (89%).

Even though small businesses are highly political, their confidence is still high. For Democrats, the Small Business Confidence Index is 62 while it’s 35 for Republicans. The number of small business owners who are Republicans is twice as high as the Democrats (40 vs. 20%) that say they worry about inflation. However, only 22% of small-business owners believe that the Biden Administration is good for their small businesses. While 62% claim it has hurt small businesses. Unindependents are 59% to believe that Biden has hurt small businesses while 62% say it has done the opposite. 60% of owners of independent small businesses say Biden has been bad economic for them.

This view is consistent with a Momentive survey of more than 9,000 small business owners, conducted for CNBC by Momentive. It shows that only 21% and just 65% respectively of Democrats agree that Biden has done a good job for the economy.

Given that President Biden’s approval rating in national polls has fallen, it is not surprising that he is seeing a sinking popularity,” Laura Wronski (senior manager for research science at Momentive) said. But it is interesting to observe that he has lost the most ground with independents. Democrats continue to support him, and Republicans don’t seem as hostile towards him now than they were in the past. This is true for small-business owners as well as the general population.

The outlook for small businesses and inflation

Momentive data is comparable to other polling.|Momentive survey is consistent with other recent surveys from the small business community.

According to the National Federation of Independent Business, labor worries remain elevated in monthly surveys. However, they have not increased in severity in line with supply chain or pricing concerns.

NFIB Covid’s latest survey, conducted in October, found that small business owners are more concerned about supply chain. Holly Wade (NFIB executive director for research) stated that there is no end in sight. She said owners are trying to find ways to improve their supply chain and increase prices while still remaining competitive. She said, “It is a lot of stress.”

Although consumer spending continues to be strong, it is becoming more challenging for small businesses to capture this spending. The supply chain as well as labor shortages have a significant impact on sales opportunities. Wade stated that it was a major problem, and extremely frustrating.

The late October survey found that 19% said their business had suffered sales losses due to the supply chain. NFIB received a majority of the small business owners (69%) who said they had increased average selling prices or hired costs. Over a third stated that they raised their prices more than 10%. Wade reports that just 30% of small-business owners don’t know when prices will return to their “normal” level. She said, “That’s quite a bit of uncertainty.”

Wronski stated that inflation is currently the most pressing question in the economy. Wronski said that it is difficult to predict what the next step will be in price hikes. Small business owners who continue to raise prices will be forced to make the consumer pay for it in a way they’ve avoided. But, if they raise their own prices too early — faster than their competitors — they’ll lose customers.”

Although the NFIB optimism index is still close to the long-term historic average (48), some indicators in the index are now more negative. These include views regarding business conditions for the next six months. It is at an all-time high among small business owners who believe that business conditions are likely to worsen. Wade explained that it is an all-pervasive feeling. Inflation doesn’t feel permanent and is often frustrating.

According to Gallup, Biden’s approval rating has fallen to 42% since summer. These causes are pre-dated inflation worries. Covid’s persistent nature and withdrawal from Afghanistan combined to bring it down to September, which is the lowest point it’s been at. It has never recovered. According to Gallup’s senior editor Jeff Jones, inflation was likely the reason Biden’s approval rating remained low despite Afghanistan becoming less prominent.

Jones stated that while we don’t know whether inflation has a greater impact than Afghanistan but this all supports a narrative about a less competent government. It hasn’t rebounded, and inflation is still a larger issue.”

President and Independents

Like the CNBC survey Jones stated that almost all of the Gallup movement is from independents. This is important because Biden’s administration started with high support from this group. Gallup revealed that although they weren’t passionate supporters of Trump at all, independents had been supportive of Biden from the start of his term. support now droppingFrom 61% to 37%

Jones stated that Biden should be concerned about it because it is the largest political bloc in the country. Jones noted that 25%-28% Americans identify themselves as Republicans, 28%-31% are Democrats, and 40% as Independents.

Jones stated that “Going 61% to 37% represents a very large drop among the largest number of voters” and said that it may also have been evident in recent Governor races in New Jersey or Virginia.

Even amid a strong economy featuring a record stock market and high GDP, it is prices at the gas pump — and coverage of that by the media — which tend to influence public perception more.

Jones explained that “Inflation and associated with that, gasoline prices, these are things people notice. And historically, it’s hard for a president have a high approval rating when gas costs are high.”

Higher gas prices were associated with some of the lowest approval ratings for Presidents Jimmy Carter and George Herbert Walker Bush.

Jones explained that while inflation is not as powerful as historically in the current political climate, it still has an impact on the economy and stock markets. He said that partisanship could play a greater role in a situation such as this, where there are mixed economic data, and it is possible to argue both ways, and that what you hear emphasized may be more important.

The economic realities and the political partisanship

However, partisanship is not the only way to tell the story.

Gallup polls Americans to find out if they believe the economy is improving or getting worse. Jones stated that the perception of economic sentiment by the public since the summer has been negative. Inflation has caused this reading to get worse every month. Even though Democrats don’t seem as worried, Democrats find it harder to believe that things are improving. Gallup shows that 50% of Democrats believe the economy has improved, while only 45% feel it is worse. The sentiment reading for Democrats is down to 76% from June.

Jones stated, “You want it at 90%.” Jones said that economic reality can be a little bit more limiting than pure partisanship.

According to Gallup data, 67% of independents believe the economy is worsening and 28% are optimistic about the future. This is down from the 45% who believed it was improving in June.

Another Gallup question asks about inflation. The question asked Americans their views on inflation. the most important problem,Jones explained that it was an open question and inflation reached 7%. That is too high for an open ended question. Jones said that you must be able to speak from the heart.

Covid and the government remain No. 1. and No. There were 2 answers to the question. Inflation is now between 1% to 2% in September and August, respectively, which remains below Gallup’s historical polling during higher prices. Jones stated that inflation could rise in the coming months, if it persists.

Government policy, Build Back Better support for small business and assistance to them

This negative assessment of President Biden’s economy policy is coming at a time where the president is trying pass major Build Back better legislation, which will raise taxes on the rich and corporations. Three key small business confidence index measures — those relating to government regulations, tax policy, and trade policy — are now more pessimistic than ever in CNBC|Momentive quarterly surveys back to 2017.

Main Street has largely opposed the Biden infrastructure bill and the Build back Better bill. 36% say the bill will have negative effects on their business, while only 24% believe it will have positive impacts. The Build Back Better bill’s elements are not supported by 52 percent of small business owners.

Some support exists for certain measures in the legislation. 21% say that affordable housing would benefit their business, while 20% believe that expanding Medicare/Medicaid would be beneficial. One-fifth (19%) of small business owners support a higher corporate tax for incomes over $10 million. 17% believe that a minimum 15% corporate tax on large corporations would aid their businesses.

Wade explained that small-business owners are stressed by the increased regulations and taxes being placed at a moment when there is a labor shortage or disruption to supply chains, and this makes it difficult for them to manage businesses already facing higher prices.

Momentive survey.|Momentive survey.

Although shocks to business systems such as inflation, disruptions in supply chains, and resignations can cause problems, they aren’t the same threat that the Covid crisis last year. According to the survey, while the omicron variant brings new uncertainty, small business owners are more confident that their businesses can sustain another year in current circumstances.

Wronski stated, “That’s proof that small businesses are resilient since March 2020. But it’s also a reminder to be optimistic as we move into 2022.” 

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