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ECB should maintain sequence of future policy moves: Schnabel -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: Isabel Schnabel is a member of Germany’s advisory board for economic experts and attends the Frankfurt European Banking Congress (EBC), at Frankfurt Old Opera House, Germany on November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski//File photo

FRANKFURT, (Reuters) – The European Central Bank shouldn’t change its policy sequence, even if it risks driving up the cost of government borrowing. However, it may require a buffer to stop market fragmentation. This was stated Wednesday by Isabel Schnabel, a board member.

Although the ECB insists that interest rates will rise only “shortly” after quantitative easing is over, some policymakers and academics are considering changing the order of these moves. This could be partly done to maintain low long-term borrowing costs, even if short-term rates go up.

Schnabel spoke in support of his speech, “Maintaining high volumes of asset purchases to avoid adjustment in long-term yields despite imminent risks to price stability will give way to fiscal or financial dominance.”

Schnabel cautioned that the euro zone of 19 countries is vulnerable to fragmentation due to its incompletion financial architecture. This means policy ECB adjustments may be increased in certain countries and push up borrowing costs higher than expected.

She stated that a credible backingstop, which commits to counter fragmentation risks, could help to protect against disorderly movements. This would allow the central banks to concentrate on their price stability mandate.

Schnabel explained that while the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme of 1.85 Trillion Euros fulfilled the same function for the past two-years, it is due to close next March.

Some policymakers proposed the creation of a dormant, similar scheme. This would help to reduce fragmentation. Other experts suggested the extension of the emergency program beyond March. Volumes could then be increased in case there is market volatility.

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