Shoppers are more likely to proceed shopping for items at larger ranges, however the insurer mentioned demand has peaked.

The report famous that whereas extra financial savings gathered throughout the pandemic haven’t been depleted, demand will normalize progressively.

“The spectacular family spending shift in direction of (sturdy) items fairly than companies, within the context of curfews and lockdowns, must be far more timid going ahead, even within the draw back state of affairs of renewed Covid-19 outbreaks,” the report mentioned.

Significantly in superior economies, households are shifting towards sustainable consumption, and the substitute cycle of the products bought throughout the pandemic is a minimum of a number of years, Euler Hermes added.

With demand going via a “self-regulated normalization,” provide chains are more likely to be underneath much less strain.

After lowering shares in early 2020, producers rushed to restock to deal with the unprecedented rebound in demand, the report mentioned.

“The excellent news is that the urgency to restock has clearly peaked over the previous months … and the extent of inventories is already above pre-crisis long-term averages amongst most sectors,” it mentioned.

Euler Hermes additionally noticed extra capex within the U.S., which might assist enhance manufacturing capacities to satisfy larger demand. By comparability, Europe is counting on “above-normal capability utilization charges” to supply extra.

“We see a possible for a catch-up in funding in Europe in 2022 (and in a while in manufacturing capability), given favorable funding circumstances and elevated company money positions,” the authors wrote.

“With out manufacturing capability will increase and investments in port infrastructure, the normalization of provide bottlenecks in Europe might be delayed past 2022 as demand stays above potential,” the report added.

Delivery congestion must also be much less acute within the second half of 2022 as a result of capability is rising, in line with the insurer.

The price of transport might stay elevated subsequent 12 months, however capability is ready to extend as world orders for brand spanking new container ships hit file highs, amounting to six.4% of the present fleet, Euler Hermes mentioned.

“The quickly rising new transportation capability orders … ought to flip operational in direction of the tip of 2022, which ought to considerably ease transport bottlenecks,” it mentioned.

Some $17 billion can also be slated to be spent on port infrastructure and waterways within the U.S., which ought to assist scale back congestion, the report mentioned.

The report additionally predicted that world commerce volumes will rise by 5.4% in 2022 and 4% in 2023, following development of 8.3% in 2021.

However commerce imbalances may worsen. Euler Hermes’ forecasts counsel that the U.S. will register record-high commerce deficits, whereas China will report a record-high commerce surplus.

Over the following few years, Asia-Pacific is ready to stay the principle winner by way of export beneficial properties, whereas vitality, electronics, equipment and gear sectors ought to proceed to outperform in 2022.

— CNBC’s Weizhen Tan contributed to this report.