Colin Packham

CANBERRA (Reuters] – On Sunday, New Caledonia in France began to vote in an independence referendum. The decision was taken amid rising fears about violence on this tiny Pacific island.

After two polls in 2018, and 2020 that narrowed down the No vote to 57%, the final vote is likely to be close.

But the Kanak indigenous population who favor independence have requested that the referendum not be taken as part of a twelve-month mourning period after the September coronavirus outbreak in Delta.

Nic Maclellan, a journalist from the Pacific said that “early signs” in New Caledonia indicate that the independence movement’s call for non-participation is being heard.

While there is a queue of voters at Noumea’s town hall, the capital, very few people are voting in Kanak-majority regions in the Loyalty Islands or Northern Province.

According to the French Embassy in New Caledonia, less than 30% of eligible voters had already cast their ballots at midday. This was a far cry from the 50% who had cast their ballots during the 2020 election, which saw nearly half of the votes being cast.

Analysts are concerned that a “no vote” will cause anger from those who favor independence and stoke instability.

One of five island territories spanning the Indo-Pacific held by France, New Caledonia is the centrepiece of President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to increase its influence in the Pacific.

Sunday’s vote is the third prescribed by a deal hammered out a decade after talks on the island’s future began in 1988, and which called for a series of independence referendums.

The 1980s saw a flurry of fighting between the supporters of independence from those who wanted France to stay French. It was 1,200 km (750miles) west of Australia in the nickel-rich region.