Andrew MacAskill, Mark John

LONDON (Reuters] – UK Remainers could take a sigh of relief as Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and elected with the promise of “Get Brexit Done”, loses support in polls after a number of scandals.

However, even pro-EU supporters who were ardent about the union’s dissolution accepted that the separation was so severe it would take several years to restore any relationship similar to the one they had with Europe.

Steve Bray said that “it’ll need to happen in stages over years.” His one-man protests at the Houses were the backdrop for hundreds of television broadcasts throughout the unfolding of the story.

Just two years ago the British Remainers were able to claim that they had created Europe’s most pro-EU grassroots movement, mobilizing thousands of people to take part in street demonstrations and millions to sign anti Brexit petitions.

This was insufficient to stop a narrow majority of 52-48% voting Leave, which led to a “hard Brexit”, which took Britain out the single market and customs union.

While polls continue to show that the majority of Remainers reject Brexit logic, their post-mortem calculation for what they expect to happen in the coming year was drowned out due to other events, including the pandemic and Britain’s chaotic domestic politics.

Although UK exports suffered a significant hit last year due to the elimination of frictionless commerce, this was largely offset by the greater impact of the pandemic.

The initial surge in support that Brexit brought to independence has been squelched by voters from heavily pro-Remain Scotland, who began to wonder if a split with England really meant a rapid re-entry to the EU.

Also, the Remain front is being splintered. A fragile organization plagued by factionalism. Remainers were always accused by Labour Party of being lukewarm supporters. Now, the main opposition Labour Party says that Brexit has to be implemented.

Bray stated that he is “totally pissed at anyone who says make Brexit work”, but others just shrug it off and claim they have also moved on.

“Labour accepted Brexit, and I can understand why,” said Luke Sandford. “It’s happening – accept reality,” stated Luke Sandford (26), who joined an anti-Brexit London group in 2016, attended marches, and assisted at Remain Headquarters before he left for Sweden two year ago.

VOTE REFORM

Surveys show that Johnson’s rating collapse is less due to Brexit than it was to questions over Johnson’s leadership and trustworthiness. There are also allegations Johnson’s office drank during a lockdown in 2020 when celebrations were prohibited.

Some analysts believe that his government won’t survive the 2024 general elections. But many Remain supporters warn against any hopes of triggering a series of events that would restore Europe-UK ties.

Naomi Smith is the head of Best for Britain, a group that has shifted its focus from an anti-Brexit campaign into an advocate for “internationalist value” and said that the EU was not rushing to accept Britain back.

Johnson’s nationalist vision, said she, had gained an electoral advantage because its backers, notably UKIP, and their Brexit Party successor, have demonstrated in two previous elections that they will not be standing in some seats for victory for the Conservative candidate.

“Meanwhile the left, the progressives, the Remainers, the internationalists – whatever word you want to use to describe the other end of the spectrum – are fragmented across three, four, sometimes more parties,” she said.

This split is amplified because of Britain’s first past the post voting system. In the 2019 election, the pro-EU Liberal Democrats were left with 1.9% parliament seats while the Greens had 14.3%.

It is not surprising that both the Lib Dems (and Greens) have sought to reform electoral systems that include some type of proportional representation. Labour would be well advised to do so before any voting pacts are made.

Although grassroots Labour supporters supported such a move during this year’s conference (and they did), a motion in that direction failed to gain clear support from the party leadership and was met with resistance by trade unions.

Smith indicated that, unless the situation changes, Best for Britain would offer supporter seat-level polling data, just like it did in 2019, so they could vote tactically for whoever is most likely to win the general election.

Analysts state that it will be more successful this time around depending on factors such as the timing of election, status of pandemic and Conservative leadership question.

Paula Surridge (deputy director, UK in a Changing Europe think-tank) stated that although 10-15% of Brexit voters still see it as a key part of their political identity and that for some, others, it is now intertwined with social class or traditional left-versus–right considerations.

She stated that the electorate was more fractured than it was in the two Leave-Remain blocs. It has created a volatile electorate, which we are still not able to fully understand.