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Delta drives surge of U.S. infections, hospitalizations amid omicron fears

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Brittany Kolkhorst was just admitted by CentraCare Sauk Centre Hospital Sauk Centre (Minn.) on Tuesday Nov. 23, 2021. Dr. UlrikaWigert, a family physician checks her over.

Getty Images| The Washington Post | Getty Images

In March 2020, the U.S. was hit by the first Covid infection wave. Pennsylvania’s biggest hospital system had hoped that the epidemic would only last six months.

The highly contagious Delta variant of Covid has ravaged University of Pittsburgh Medical Center for more than a year. 

“We expected this to be a three- to six-month crisis and then we expected it to be over — instead it’s 20 months,” Dr. John Goldman, an infectious disease expert at UPMC Harrisburg, told CNBC. Since March 2020, we have been extremely busy. People find it very difficult to keep up this level of intensity.

Officials in public health have been warning for several weeks about the possibility of another Covid outbreak this winter due to Delta. As families celebrate the holidays and residents seek warmth, they warn that Americans will be facing another Covid wave. Goldman explained that this winter’s second-highest number of Covid hospital admissions is due in large part to unvaccinated people. 

University of Pittsburgh Medical Center,The hospital, which houses more than 40 hospitals with 8,700 beds and has nearly reached capacity, Goldman stated. He said that staffing is tight because some healthcare professionals are experiencing burnout. They have found other jobs where they make more in tight labor markets.

Goldman stated that the hospital system is committed to treating patients as fast and safely as possible. He encouraged the public to have Covid tests done through their doctors’ offices and not at the emergency room to ensure there are still beds available for seriously ill patients. He said that UPMC uses more telemedicine appointments in order to see more patients without having them admitted.

According to Goldman, at the beginning of the pandemic the average patient was 65 years old and often lived in a nursing facility. According to Goldman, patients who are currently afflicted by the Covid epidemic are typically younger than 65 and often fall between 55-60 years of age.

Goldman stated that it was also difficult to imagine such a high level of mortality. “We are used to the ability to repair young, healthy individuals. “We don’t like seeing them go.”

On Sunday, Minnesota’s Mayo Clinic and its affiliated hospitals ran full-page ads in state newspapers appealing to the people of Minnesota to get their vaccines and use a mask.

According to the advertisement, “We are heartbroken. We’re overwhelmed.” Our emergency rooms are full and there is always a patient in every bed. The question now is: Will you be able get immediate care at your community hospital? Today that’s uncertain.

Infectious disease specialists are concerned about an enemy in America, which has now taken root in hospitals across the country. More than 20 states now have the heavily-mutated Omicron variant. The omicron variant now affects 3% of cases in the U.S., and even more in highly populated states like New York and New Jersey. According to Dr. Rochelle Walensky from the CDC, 13% is due to it in Covid cases.

White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci  has said there’s “no doubt” community spread is underway. 

CNBC’s Dr. Barbara Sattkamp Taylor told CNBC that “In the coming weeks with omicron,” what we have here could be a perfect hurricane.” Taylor is an expert in infectious diseases at UT Health San Antonio. A more contagious variant will be present with holiday travel. We are concerned about the future of January and December, so that we can see what happens in February.

‘Twin threats’

While information about omicron is limited, there are preliminary reports and live reporting from both southern Africa where the strain was first discovered, and Europe. These data suggest that this variant may be significantly more contagious to other Covid strains. Officials from World Health said Wednesday that the U.K.’s number of cases is increasing by at most a third every other day. Although most people infected by omicron are reporting mild symptoms, scientists and health officials warn that it may take several weeks for them to discover if the variant is more severe.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advise that delta is still the main threat to public safety this winter. However, omicron infection rates are rising. CDC analyzed about 3% of the samples containing omicron during week ending December 11. Delta accounted for 97% and 97% respectively. Omicron was less than 1 percent of the samples in week previous.

A seven-day average of Johns Hopkins University data shows that the U.S. reports nearly 120,00 new cases each day. The numbers are flat in comparison to last week, but have increased 25% over before Thanksgiving.

A seven-day average of Department of Health and Human Services data shows that approximately 68,000 Americans are being hospitalized with Covid-19. That’s up 21% in two weeks. Although this is increasing, it’s still below the peak of the Delta wave when over 100,000 people were infected with the virus in September.

“Delta continues its drive case across the country,” CDC Director Rochelle Wilensky told a White House Covid update, Dec. 4, 2013.

The United Kingdom has already raised concerns about omicron. On Sunday, Britain’s Chief Medical Officers issued a Level 4 Covid Alert, which is a step lower than the highest level of threat. It warned that Omicron hospitalizations “are already happening” and will continue to rise rapidly. 

Last week, the U.K. Health Security Agency stated that delta is losing its transmission advantage to omicron. British Health Secretary Sajid Javid said that the variant could reach more than 1,000,000 cases by next year. He also described the simultaneous circulation of delta and micron as “two threats” to the public’s health.

Walensky believes that the U.S. does not face the same immediate timeline for omicron issues as the U.K. “I don’t think will be on the similar time horizon U.K., and we’re continuing to monitor cases and that we’ll look at carefully,” Walensky stated during a White House Covid update Friday.

Dr. Michael Osterholm of University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, however, thinks that delta will soon be overtaken by omicron.

Osterholm said last week that it was only a matter time until omicron is the dominant variant in this region. He also indicated that he believes that such a change could occur relatively soon.

Many Covid patients are not vaccinated

Public health professionals grapple with the consequences of omicron. Hospitals in Michigan already battle a rising tide of Delta Covid Infections.President of Spectrum Health West Michigan Dr. Darryl Elmouchi stated that the 14 hospital system hospitals suffered from “far and away” the most severe surges in the past months. 

Michigan’s Covid Hospitalizations are the highest in the United States, adjusted to population. The average seven-day Covid patient count is more than 4,700, according to CNBC analysis.

Elmouchi stated that the combination of Covid patients with those who have more common health issues has led to intensive care units reaching around 140% capacity in a matter of months.

Unvaccinated patients are the largest group currently being treated for Covid in the entire system. Spectrum Health hospital admissions peaked at the end of November 2020. There was then a sharp rise in death rates in December. Elmouchi predicts worse winter.

Elmouchi stated that “we are unfortunately on track to follow exactly the same, but worse this autumn.” We project December deaths at absolute peak levels.”

Goldman reported that Covid patients admitted at the University of Pittsburgh are mostly unvaccinated in Pennsylvania. According to Goldman, UPMC Altoona is the central Pennsylvania hospital with the greatest number of Covid-positive admissions. It has a population of only 45%.

Pennsylvania is home to the nation’s fourth highest number of hospitalizations, adjusted for population. There are an average of over 5,000 Covid patients at the hospital each day in Pennsylvania.,According to HHS data.

Goldman said that between 80 and 90% of Covid hospital patients were not vaccinated. Up to 95% of intensive care unit patients have been infected with the virus. Some patients aren’t convinced of the benefits or don’t believe the shots are effective. Others are more skeptical and think there may be a conspiracy to prevent them from getting the vaccine.

Goldman explained that there are “people who have been fed a lot false information.” I don’t know how to convince people who believe in conspiracy theories that they don’t exist. “It’s very difficult, my experience is.”

It is urgent to get boosters

Although the surge in current cases is mostly driven by the delta strain, Elmouchi stated that the rise of the omicron virus increases the need for booster vaccines. 

He said that it was difficult to persuade so many people to receive a routine course of vaccines, but that he believes we will be entering a new phase in which we have to “try to convince everyone to get the booster.”

Since the CDC approved booster shots, only a small fraction of Spectrum Health Covid admissions – 19 patients out of thousands who have entered one of their hospitals – had received a booster dose more than two weeks before being admitted, Elmouchi said.

Public health officials have been focusing on boosters as the protection offered by vaccines wears away over time. Many people were given their first shot more than six months prior to this. According to preliminary data from South African scientists and Pfizer, the omicron version is not as widespread as delta, but it can significantly bypass protection against BioNTech’s two-dose vaccine.

In a study that was published in Science last month, the journal Science found that the level of protection provided by BioNTech and Pfizer against infections dropped to 43% from 86% in February. John Perez from Pfizer, vice president for vaccine clinical research at Pfizer, stated that the booster dose protects 95% against symptomatic disease in 16-year-olds.

The initial dose of two vaccines provides severe disease protection. Goldman explained that people with breakthrough illnesses who are fully vaccinated usually have between 75 and 80 year olds, multiple medical conditions, or a suppressed immune system. According to Goldman, most patients infected by a fully-vaccinated virus have mild symptoms.

Goldman explained that the vast majority (over 90%) of patients who have been vaccinated never go to hospital. “I think because of their mild symptoms and because many people think they have mild allergic reactions or some viral illness, a lot don’t get tested.”

Initial lab tests also show that boosters can protect against omicron. Pfizer and BioNTech have released preliminary laboratory data that shows that boosters provide the same virus-fighting power as the initial two-doses of vaccine against the strain.

“We need to get people involved”

Osterholm, Minnesota stressed that more people need to be vaccinated. More than 60 million Americans are still not vaccinated. The public must also understand that social distancing and masking are still important tools to fight Covid.

“There are many states in this country where bars are full, restaurants are full – all the social events before the pandemic are going on now and this is a real challenge,” Osterholm said.

In an attempt to combat delta, some European countries are now imposing restrictions to stop omicron spiraling outof control. England encourages people to work remotely, requires masks for indoor spaces and asks them for proof of at least two vaccinations before they can enter large parties and nightclubs.

Germany banned the unvaccinated workers from any non-essential businesses. France has closed nightclubs in France for 4 weeks. Austria is currently under lockdown.

President Joe Biden has said that there will be no lockdowns at the U.S. and instead will focus on efforts to increase vaccinations and test more as we enter winter.

Taylor, an infectious disease specialist at UT Health San Antonio said that the U.S. has also been experiencing more flu cases this year. This is after the flu season in 2020 was almost eliminated due to strict social distancing rules to manage Covid.

Because of seasonal illness and flu, hospitals are at full capacity nearly every winter. Taylor stated that even an increase in Covid would make it really serious.

Goldman worries about the possibility of a combination flu season with a rise in Delta infections. As health-care professionals try their best to manage the patient influx, Goldman asked for understanding from the public.

Goldman stated that people tend to spend less time with us when they have to wait. We need to let the public know that we all work very hard. Then, we need people to help us get this done. I believe that everyone should be vaccinated.

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