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U.S. Retail Sales Trail Forecast, Suggesting Drag From Inflation -Breaking

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(Bloomberg). U.S. Retail sales increased less than expected in November. This suggests that Americans are tempering their purchases in the face of inflation at its fastest pace in many decades.

Commerce Department data Wednesday showed that overall retail sales increased in November, after an increase of 1.8% in October. Sales rose 0.2% in November, excluding motor vehicles and gas. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

According to a Bloomberg Survey, the median estimate was for an increase of 0.8% in total retail sales over the preceding month. 

This report could reflect the pull forward in holiday sales, as Americans are more aware of slowing supply chains and have shopped earlier. 

The U.S. is experiencing the highest rate of inflation in nearly 40 years. Consumers may be more cautious as inflation risk increases, especially since fiscal supports such as the moratorium on student loan payments will end in early next year.

The next week will bring you inflation-adjusted data on consumer spending for November.

Last month saw declines in receipts for five of 13 categories, with the largest drop being at appliances and electronics merchants. The November sales at other retailers (e-commerce included) were not significantly affected.

Some of these increases could be due to rising prices in areas like grocery stores and gasoline stations. 

From a month prior, the so-called “control group” sales fell 0.1% to November.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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