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Better armed but more isolated than ever -Breaking

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© Reuters. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits Samjiyon County in this undated photograph released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency, (KCNA) on October 30, 2018. KCNA/via REUTERS. File Photo

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Josh Smith

SEOUL (Reuters). Despite the actions of young leader Kim Jong Un’s hopes for economic reform or opening up to international trade, North Korea has become more isolated than ever and is now dependent upon China ten years later.

Kim’s pursuit of nuclear weapons defined his first 10 years in power, but analysts say the path has left him isolated and facing perhaps the greatest challenges yet.

These weapons could be a hindrance to political breakthroughs that would improve an economy in crisis and stop millions of people starving. They also serve as a reminder about the ongoing sanctions and anti-pandemic lockdowns that make him dependent on China.

Kim adopted a style different from his father’s idiosyncratic approach to North Korea, trying to normalize it by institutionalising more leadership and delegating more authority; winning international respect via nuclear weapons summits and the establishment of diplomatic relations with foreign leaders; transparency and compassion towards improving everyday life of citizens.

This has sometimes led to expectations about economic reform in the socialist country or changes in relations with its longstanding rivals, such as South Korea and the United States.

Systemic change was not possible as Kim continued his father’s most egregious practices: political prison camps, brutal executions, tight control of the economy and society.

Christopher Green from Leiden University, the Netherlands said that “I believe the experience of Kim’s rule for ordinary North Koreans represented a moment in hope in those first years.”

Kim must make difficult decisions about whether to trade his weapons to get sanctions relief or to find ways to increase the economy.

“(Sanctions) put an upper limit on what he can do with his economy but doesn’t mean he can’t get to a point that’s much more comfortable for people than where he is now,” said Robert Carlin, a former CIA officer now with the Washington-based Stimson Center.

Green explained that even though there are calls for controlled openness after the effects of the pandemic have been heard once more from inside the regime elite. However, it is still difficult to turn the tide in favor North Korea.

He added that without a significant increase in foreign capital, economic reform would be almost certain to fail.

WEAPONS SPECIALIZED IN SANCTIONS

Kim conducted the four nuclear weapon tests North Korea under its leadership, including the first known hydrogen bomb. Kim also developed intercontinental missiles that could strike the United States.

Kim sees this arsenal as the “treasured blade” which will defend North Korea and his rule from threats outside, making it an equal nuclear power.

However, it brought North Korea to war with the United States in 2017. It also prompted Russia’s and China’s allies to accept strict U.N. sanctioning.

Kim tried to get sanctions relief, and made a significant breakthrough in relations between the United States and Kim. However, talks with Trump have stalled and Washington has demanded Pyongyang give up some weapons to ease sanctions.

Kim is likely to continue “playing tough” in nuclear diplomacy, because more nuclear weapons development will enhance his political leverage, bargaining power, and negotiation ability, stated Duyeon Kim of the U.S-based Center for a New American Security.

“We can expect to see him continue to shape his personal and his country’s image as normal, modern, and advanced across all sectors particularly nuclear and economic, and even foreign affairs when the pandemic subsides,” she added.

According to Zhao Tong in Beijing, a strategic security specialist, Kim was able to repair relations quickly after he had sent the China-North Korea relationship to an historic low. He prioritised nuclear weapons development and missiles production, then harshly criticised Beijing for supporting sanctions.

China accounts now for the majority of North Korea’s international trade. Zhao stated that both governments share the goal of countering Western influence and promoting socialist ideology.

“Despite Kim’s preference of diversifying North Korea’s international partnerships, he is likely to continue relying heavily on support from China and a small number of other like-minded countries,” he said.

CONTROL STRESSING

Green said that Kim Jong Un tried economic reforms in his early years to create the excesses necessary to manage the patronage networks which support autocratic rule.

He stated, “But it appeared that the risks and opposition were too great at this time. So he dialled it down.”

An UN rights investigator warned North Koreans that they are at risk of starvation if their economic and food situations do not improve.

This pandemic saw the government consolidate its control over the economy. It cast doubt on the viability of black markets, as well as the official businesses on which many North Koreans have come to depend.

Kim has enjoyed the rapid proliferation of technology in North Korea such as cell phones, however activists claim he is also using a high-tech surveillance system and oppressive political control to try to eliminate foreign influence as well as domestic protest.

However, Kim can still fulfill his promise to North Korea that he will improve the lives of its citizens if he adopts diplomacy. Ramon Pacheco Pardo from King’s College London, who is an expert on Korea, stated that it’s not too late.

“Ultimately, Kim’s time in power could be defined by his ability to raise the living standards of ordinary North Koreans once the pandemic is over,” he said.

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