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China, Russia and Iran will seek to advance their geopolitical ambitions in 2022

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Be prepared for 2022, an year where you live dangerously.

The world will see many of its greatest gains from the post-World War II period tested. All of the following are at stake: the security of Europe, Asia and the stability of democracy, open market development, democratic governance, the protection of individual rights, and the guarantee of human progress.

In the thirty years that have passed since the end of the Cold War, the United States has never faced a year with such a volatile mix of domestic and geopolitical uncertainty. These interconnected issues are like a Gordian knot, which only bold action will unravel.

These external and internal perils are converged with deep U.S. divisiveness, international discordance, and a high difficulty level to find an effective solution.

Add to that, the alarming rise in inflation over the past three decades as well as the constant suffering of Covid-19. The certainty that these issues will create a bigger divide between the rich and the poor, makes global volatility all but certain.

These are all external factors we should be concerned about in 2022.

Russia, a revanchist nation, wants to regain control over Ukraine. China is also threatening Taiwan’s independence. China is not denying that Taiwanese freedoms are separate. Iran, on the other hand, is rapidly moving towards nuclear-weapons capability. Israel might be required to react.

These dangers are escalating at a time when Chinese, Russian and Iranian leaders alike – having witnessed the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and its understandable focus on domestic issues – may see 2022 as the best moment yet to advance their geopolitical ambitions.

The optimistic among us may take comfort knowing that there’s a path out of this briar patch. Technology, healthcare, and greater human access to information may usher in an era of global advancement.

It is also clear that democracy, especially the United States, has sufficient resilience to recover and rebuild. 

History shows that those who are most autoritarian in government tend to be most vulnerable.

China’s incredible rise to be the first capitalist communist nation is facing a string of setbacks that are mostly self-inflicted.

President Xi JinpingChina is increasing domestic repression, and strengthening Communist Party control of China’s top companies in technology. In so doing, he is choking them off from international financial markets – and he may be killing the panda that laid China’s economic miracle.

Vladimir Putin’sRussia is a nation on the move, fuelled by rising energy prices as well as geopolitical muscle-flexing, from Syria to Donbas. Putin’s hopes of reversing the humiliations of the past will be hindered by existing and future economic sanctions as well Russia’s demographic and energy challenges.

Putin spoke out in documentary that was aired on Russian television Sunday last week. He said that three decades after the Soviet Union fell, it still remains a tragedy to most Russian citizens. He talked for the first time publiclyHe talked about the hardships he faced while driving a taxi to get by.

“After all what’s the point of the Soviet Union falling apart?” He was curious. “This is what happens to historical Russia when it falls under the Soviet Union’s name.”

What can Iran’s corrupt regime continue to endure?  The republic has produced so few goods for its people, while engaging in countless, expensive adventures abroad – in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East.  

This all may point to the biggest danger in 2022, the chaos and uncertainty around the United States. Both allies and adversaries question the internal cohesion of our country, as well as our ability to and willingness for action.

To many around the globe, America, which has been the glue holding the global system together since the end of WWII, seems to be in disarray. America does not want China, or any other country to take over its global leadership position. It isn’t leaving the scene. It’s still struggling to find effective and up-to-date ways to influence world affairs.

It is fair to say that each of these issues was recognized early by the Biden Administration and its highly-skilled foreign relations team.

In this area, a year ago, I wrote, “Joe BidenThis rare opportunity in history presents the possibility to serve as a President of Transformative Foreign Policy.

Biden stated that March was a turning point in the history of humanity. Global dynamics have changed. Attention must be paid to new crises. … One thing is certain: we will only succeed in advancing American interests and upholding our universal values by working in common cause with our closest allies and partners, and by renewing our own enduring sources of national strength.”

Although it is not easy to translate rhetoric into action, 2022 must be about that.  This year has been especially messy for a president in his first year of office.

Biden’s second term will test his ability to organize himself domestically and internationally for 2022’s geopolitical problems.

Even worse than questioning the values of our allies, partners and allies worry about our capacity and ability to take action.

With the Winter Olympics at Beijing and further Russian troop movements in Ukraine, this year of living dangerously is set to get off to an exciting start.  This year of living dangerously will conclude with the Chinese Communist Party Congress, which is expected to name Xi president for life.

However, in this year of dangerous living, the U.S. may play a greater role than any other actor in the story’s plotting. 

Frederick Kempe is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Atlantic Council.

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