Rapid spread of omicron variant of Covid-19Experts say that strict containment is forcing all governments around the world to enforce tighter controls. However, there are some encouraging signs in the current data.

Although it’s too soon to determine the extent of this variant’s severity, it has been shown that it may cause damage similar to other variants and even milder.

Recent data from South Africa — where the strain first emerged — along with a study from Hong Kong and developments from vaccine manufacturers, seem to point to some potential elements of good news amid the overarching dangers. The hospitalization and mortality rates for this strain are significantly lower than those of previous varieties.

CNBC heard from Lawrence Young, University of Warwick professor of oncology, that antiviral drugs are available to fight omicron. He also mentioned vaccines which can improve their effectiveness and lateral flow testing which allows us to monitor our infection status at real-time.

Even though the symptoms of the disease are less severe, experts believe that it poses a grave threat to public health systems. The sheer number of people infected will increase the need for hospital care.

According to the World Health Organization, omicron infection rates are increasing by 1.5-3 days in communities. The variant is now being detected in at least 89 nations.

Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London, told CNBC via email on Tuesday that even if omicron does prove to be “milder” than other strains, the potential caseload could double or triple the number of people needing hospitalization in the U.K., where the virus is currently rampant — with particular risk to the unvaccinated.

1. The promise of a T-cell response

Young, University of Warwick’s virologist described the findings of his laboratory on the body’s reactions to omicron. He highlighted one reaction that is likely to help the patient avoid the severe effects of the disease.

He said that although laboratory data has shown that spike proteins of the Omicron variant are relatively resistant to virus blocking antibodies, natural infections or vaccinations, T cells’ response to these viruses is highly conserved.”

Young explained that this is due to the fact it targets areas of spike protein which are very consistent between the omicron virus variant and the original Wuhanvirus, upon which the current vaccines are built.

If the virus enters the body through vaccine-resistant defenses, it is possible to preserve T cells and reduce the chance of severe reactions.

2. Lung infection rates are lower

An experiment by the University of Hong Kong led by Dr. Michael Chan Chiwai found that omicron transmits quicker and more efficiently than delta in human bronchus.

The study is still under peer review. However, it also found that the severity of omicron infections in the lungs was significantly lower. This suggests that they may not have as severe an impact on people who are infected.

It is therefore more likely to infect our bodies than it is to cause damage.

Dr. Chan said that although the virus may not be as pathogenic, it can cause severe illness and even death infected with a high-infectious disease if there are more victims.

He said, “Therefore combined with recent studies that show the Omicron variation can partly escape immunity to vaccines, and previous infection, it is very likely that Omicron variant poses a significant threat.”

Young, however, stressed that Hong Kong’s findings so far were “interesting, but very preliminary.”

3. Boosters work

There is evidence to suggest that people who are vaccinated, especially those who received booster shots, have a lower risk of being hospitalized or even dying from this new variant.

This week, more encouraging news came in Monday. ModernaIt announced that it had proved to be efficient against the omicron strain in laboratory testing.

Benjamin Cowling from the School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong said Monday that all data so far indicate that the omicron variation causes approximately the same severity of disease as the delta variant in patients who are not vaccinated or have never been infected.

“If you are vaccinated and have ever had an illness, it is possible to get some protection. This protects you against serious disease. Omicron, in fact, looks more mild than you think. He said that it appears to be a milder virus because of our immunity and not because the virus has a different innate severity.

Cowling stated that vaccines provide two types of protection: first, antibodies protect against infection; second, T-cells protect against serious disease in the case of an advanced infection.

“If we receive that third dose of the booster it strengthens this outer line of defense. We are back where we were six months ago. Three doses is enough to give us these two lines of defense back.”

Young stressed that, while booster data has been promising for severe symptoms, this will not negate the possibility of the variant overburdening health systems.

“The latest preliminary modelling indicates that a booster jab could provide around 85% protection against severe disease from omicron – but that means that 15% of boosted individuals won’t be fully protected, and added to those who are unvaccinated or not boosted, this is a huge number of vulnerable individuals,” he said.

4. South Africa has lower hospitalization rates

The suggestion was echoed by South Africa where scientists first discovered the virus in November. However, it is most likely that the virus has already been detected in other countries all over the globe at the time.

A rapid increase in cases was observed in the country, which seems to have topped in Gauteng around three weeks following first detection.

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The rolling average daily death rate remained stable despite the increase in cases. This is a marked departure from the previous wave and variations.

Last week, Joe Phaahla, the health minister said that only 1.7% of Omicron patients were currently being admitted to hospital compared with 19% in 2000 when the Delta variant was first discovered.

Phaahla was also concerned about the declining vaccination rate, suggesting that this may not be due to omicron being less virulent but rather that vaccines and natural immunity are increasing the protection against severe infections among infected.

Young explained to CNBC that extrapolating the South African experience is difficult because of Young’s younger age, the immune status of infected people, and that South Africa has summer, which may have influenced the spread of Omicron.

5. Antiviral drug developments

One possible solution to the Covid impact is the development of antiviral drugs that target high-risk populations such as cancer and immunosuppressed patients.

PfizerIt was announced last week the second stage of trials for Paxlovid’s antiviral treatment. cut the risk of hospitalization or death in high-risk patients by 89%If administered within 3 days of the symptom onset and 88% within 5 days,

The U.K. medicines regulator recently approved the use Xevudy, a monoclonal antibodies made by GlaxoSmithKline (Vir Biotechnology), and Xevimab. Lagevrio (molnupiravir), made by Ridgeback Biotherapeutics and Merck Sharp & Dohme.

This Wednesday is the U.K. government confirmed that it had ordered an additional 2.5 million coursesParxlovid, 1.75 million Lagevrio and for delivery in 2022.

High risk for hospital capacity and highly vulnerable unvaccinated patients

Altmann, an Imperial College London immunology professor, cautioned against using the latest data as an excuse to lose sight of the need for caution.

Unvaccinated people are an important vulnerability that he, and other experts, stress. Hospitalizations may be biased towards those who are not vaccinated or have received only one dose of vaccines.

He said that the U.K. was the most affected, and that the NHS (National Health Service), were A) severely depleted by Omicron, and B) heavily stretched and tired after two years of thankless service, it would make the situation untenable.