Tom Balmforth

MOSCOW (Reuters). – Russia has deployed tens to thousands of troops in the Ukraine’s north, east, and south. This is creating fears among Kyiv residents and Western capitals about a Russian attack. Russia denied any plans to do so.

Western military analysts suggest that Russia can’t keep these troops in place for too long due to logistical and financial problems and will have to remove them by the end of next year.

The numbers of Russian soldiers moving closer to Ukraine range from 60,000 to 90,000. A U.S intelligence document suggests that this number could rise to 175,000.

U.S. officials warn Russia could launch another attack on Ukraine in the first half of next month. This will cause the ground to become more challenging, making it possible for tanks and armours to move faster.

On Thursday, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russian officials and U.S. officials will begin to discuss Moscow’s requests for security guarantees from the West. This is in an effort to ease the crisis. He also expressed hope for a positive result.

What would a Russian attack look like? And what goals could it achieve?

The current deployments can be flexible. They allow Russia to have options, and they keep the defense guessing,” Keir Gilles, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House.

Below are some scenarios.

DONBASS ESCALATION

Since 2014, heavily armed Russian-backed separatists control a large part of eastern Ukraine. They continue to fire on Ukrainian government forces regularly despite the 2015 ceasefire which ended most hostilities.

Kyiv claims that 15,000 civilians have died in conflict in Donbass. Russia denies that Ukraine had regular troops there.

Russia has also accused Kyiv that it was planning to take over the area by force. Ukraine refutes this accusation.

Russia might use such an event as a casus belli, if it is in a febrile environment.

According to a source, this is the best scenario for Moscow if it decides that they attack. However, he said he didn’t know of any such move. The same source also said that Kyiv might be provoked to attack by separatists, who would then request Russia to send troops.

According to Neil Melvin (director of International Security Studies, RUSI), Russian forces may expand fighting in Donbass to bring Ukraine into a conventional, bloody conflict. He said that Moscow might try to capture new areas of Ukrainian coastline on the Sea of Azov to create a landbridge from Rostov to Crimea. He stated that such a move would “put the Ukrainian government under tremendous pressure.”

ASSAULT FROM CRIMEA

Russia has sent new soldiers to Crimea that it annexed from Ukraine last year. It said this week that new drills would be held by paratroopers there.

According to Konrad Muzyka (director of Rochan consulting in Poland), Moscow could attack Ukraine again from Crimea. The Russians could seize territories up to the Dnieper River, which could be used as an effective barrier against any counter-offensive by Ukraine.

This operation might begin by using massive artillery and missile fire to strike the Ukrainian military units south. He said that Spetsnaz might take over bridges or railway junctions to allow troops and tanks to move forward. He said that there are two routes from Crimea which could be destroyed or blocked, which is a weakness.

After Russia annexed Crimea, Ukraine was unable to stop the flow of fresh water from the Soviet-era canal.

MULTIFRONT ATTACK

The U.S. made this information public in a document that stated Russia could invade as soon as January, with as many as 100 battalion-tactical groups (BTGs), or about 175,000 soldiers. The document stated that about 50 BTGs had been placed to the east and north of Ukraine, and Crimea to their south. This makes it possible for an attack by three parties.

Melvin suggested that Russia could seize southern Ukraine in order to make it more militaryly strategic by cutting Kyiv’s access from the Black Sea and NATO’s presence on the Black Sea. This could work politically for Russian nationalists that see this area as part of the “Novorossiya”, or New Russia.

An assault on multiple fronts might include Moscow entering northeastern Ukraine. Moscow could encircle, but maybe not go into major cities that it may get entangled in the urban fighting. Giles suggested that Russian troops could also be sent into Belarus in order to create a north front that will allow Ukraine closer to Kyiv.

Melvin stated, “This would be the most expensive economically, politically and in human lives. That’s probably why that’s unlikely.” Melvin spoke of an all out invasion.

Analysts stated that Russia may face resistance from guerrillas even if Ukraine overwhelms its army which is about half its size. This would mean Russia will have a difficult time capturing territory.

MISSILE ATTACKS OR CYBER STRIKES

Giles suggested that certain scenarios might involve cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure or long-range missile attack. Ukraine’s lower anti-missile defenses would be vulnerable to missile attacks.

He stated that the different ways Russia could persuade West to punish Kyiv are not necessarily based on a land invasion.