Stock Groups

Santa Claus may be on his way to stock investors in the week ahead

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Santa Claus visits the New York Stock Exchange floor.

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

After some turbulence the decks could be cleared to allow for an old-fashioned Santa Claus rally during the week.

After a difficult stretch which continued through Monday, stocks were up in the last week. These are the facts S&P 500It has recovered, and was up 3.5% as of Thursday.

Art Hogan is National Securities’ chief market strategist. “I feel like all of the things that we were concerned about in December, to some extent, are now over,” he said. “We are aware of what the Fed plans to do. While this variant is more popular, it’s less dangerous and we already know that Build Back Better legislation will be in 2022. As we close things, I believe the market will find the path that is least restrictive to the upside.

There is a lot of historical data that shows the market’s positive outlook for stocks. The “Stock Trader’s Almanac” states that the following: Santa rally period — the final five trading days of the current year and first two of the new year — is mostly a time when the stock market gains. These are the most important times when stocks market gains. S&P 500It has been positive about 79% of those days since 1928. The average gain has been around 1.7%.

You should also consider the historical trend of momentum extending into final trading sessions when the market is experiencing a strong year. The S&P 500 is up about 25% for the year.

According to Bank of America, when the S&P 500 has already seen such solid gains, the final six sessions are positive. Since 1980, there have been 10 instances where the S&P 500 was up 20% or more going into the last stretch of trading and in nine of those years, it ended the final six days higher.

December was particularly rough

After several weeks of choppiness, stocks head into the last sessions of the year feeling a tailwind.

“This December was the fourth-most rockiest since 1987. The average daily move for the S&P 500 has been 1.1%,” said Hogan. That’s quite a bit of activity. Three of the most volatile Decembers occurred in 2008, 2000 and 2018.

Hogan indicated that the volume for the week ending on the 12th of January is usually 20%-30% lower than the normal. Hogan stated that in low volumes, the market tends to pick a direction when it is invigorated.

Paul Hickey co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group said that positive news about the Covid Omicron variant this Week was what triggered the market’s recovery. There were studies showing omicronmilder than the other coronavirus variants. Food and Drug Administration approved pillsStarting at Pfizer MerckCovid can be used for treatment.

Hickey explained that the market used to be focused on what could go wrong after Thanksgiving. People now have a brighter view. This view is likely to pervade the week ahead, Hickey said.

Hickey stated that markets will begin to position themselves as we move towards January. Although investors are likely to start looking toward next earnings season, they don’t seem too optimistic. There could still be upside surprises.

“There was negative sentiment about supply chains, inflation, and labor shortages going into last year’s earnings season. We had a good earnings season. Hickey explained that the earnings season was more mixed.

Stocks that are high-growth have been hit

Stocks suffered from the December and November selling. Some stocks that are high in growth were hit hard by investors turning to safety investments. These funds were among those that received their lumps during December. Ark InnovationETF iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF.

I believe some of the growth areas that were hit hardest will recover. Hickey stated that these areas could be able to see an early-year bounce. There were many reasons they sold. Concerns about the Fed were one reason. A second concern was the Fed. With a split Congress, this is more questionable.

The fate of President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better stimulatory legislation has been in doubt for the last week. West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin said he would not support it. Analysts believe that the plan will continue to evolve.

Hickey from Bespoke said that January could also be a positive month for stocks. There could even be chances for stocks to rebound if they are hit by tax loss selling.

The January effect is positive. He said that all tax-loss sellers who have compressed multiples of their taxes are buyers.

Housing data

Markets are focusing on economic data, with the Federal Reserve predicting three interest rate rises next year.

Housing has been hugely benefited by the Fed’s close-zero interest rate policy. Therefore, all housing data will be closely monitored. Home prices data will also be available Tuesday. On Wednesday, data on pending home sales will be released.

InspereX Senior Trader David Petrosinelli stated that the December job market is the next important data point. Markets will remain quiet the week after.

According to him, “Next Week is generally a snoozer. It’s the week before New year’s.” “All of the action will be in the first week of January.”

Week ahead calendar

Tuesday

9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

9:00 AM FHFA home price

Wednesday

8:15 a.m. Economic indicators

10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

Thursday

8.30 a.m. Jobless claims

Friday

Chicago PMI 9:45 am

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