Explainer-Sudan’s political transition in the balance -Breaking
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© Reuters. Protesters demonstrate during an anti-military rule rally following the December 30th coup in Khartoum. REUTERS/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah2/2
(Reuters] – Sudan’s Abdalla Haddok has resigned from his role as prime minister six weeks after he returned to power following a military coup.
This action increases the uncertainty surrounding Sudan’s political future, and facilitates a transition towards election since Omar al-Bashir was ousted in 2019.
WHY WAS HAMDOK REIGNED?
Hamdok https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sudans-abdalla-hamdok-2022-01-02 had served as prime minister for more than two years under a power-sharing arrangement between civilians and the army, until the military toppled him in October, accusing politicians of hostility to the army.
In an attempt to partially reverse his coup, he was allowed to return to the leadership of a government made up of technocrats. He will serve this term until 2023. However, Bashir’s protest movement and key political parties opposed his agreement with the military.
Hamdok stated that he will only remain in his position if he can mobilize political support. In a Televised Address on Jan 2, Hamdok said that he could not unite the polarised factions enough to make it possible to progress with the transition.
He said, “To all our military apparatus and armed forces: The people are the supreme authority.”
Is he able to be replaced?
Democrats questioned the viability of Hamdok’s method for building consensus in the face of political instability, but he was widely respected and an important partner to the international community.
The coup was a major defeat for the military leaders, but it’s not clear what they will call next.
DOES THIS MEAN FULL MILITARY TROL?
After Hamdok’s Nov. 21 return, he reversed certain appointments to high-ranking state positions made by military personnel after the coup. This included Bashir-era veterans.
One test for the intentions of the military will be whether these reversals hold.
Several prominent pro-democracy figures, including former ministers, were released. However, arrests and dispersals by security forces using live rounds and tear gas continue. Since October, medics have reported that dozens of victims were killed.
Protest organizers “Resistance groups” and prominent parties declare that they are against any partnership or negotiation with the military.
WHY IS IT MATTTERING?
Sudan is a nation of 46 million citizens. The outcome of the transition will decide the power balance.
Hamdok had reached an agreement to pay off more than $56 billion of foreign debt. However, this was put into doubt after the coup. The government had undertaken painful economic reforms which it claimed were beginning to pay off against the backdrop of poverty and severe shortages.
It also committed to following other Arab states’ lead in normalizing relations with Israel. The Transitional Authorities had reached a partial agreement with the rebels in Sudan’s South and Darfur where there has been increased unrest and displacement.
Sudan’s direction will affect a highly volatile region near the Sahel, Red Sea and Horn of Africa. This area is where many countries are competing for power. Tens of thousands fled Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict last year, bringing new tensions to the border region of Sahel, Red Sea and Horn of Africa.
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