Omicron wave seems to have peaked in South Africa, London next?
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The Steve Biko Academic Hospital, Pretoria, South Africa was visited by health professionals on January 19, 2021.
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In a matter of weeks, the omicron Covid-19 variant — first detected in South Africa and Botswana in November — has surged around the world, leading to millions of new cases and the re-imposition of coronavirus restrictions in many countries.
Following research by Covid vaccine manufacturers, Europe and the U.S. have begun to roll out booster shots quickly. Pfizer–BioNTech ModernaThe effectiveness of Covid shots in standard doses is hampered by the omicron version. but that booster shots significantly increase the level of protection against the variant.
However, both areas have seen an increase in cases. with the U.S. reporting over 1 million new daily Covid cases on MondayFrance and the U.K. are among countries reporting high numbers of infections daily, with some reaching 200,000 per day. Even though hospitalizations in the affected countries are steadily increasing, admissions and death rates remain well below their previous highs.
Also, an increasing body of evidenceExperts believe that the Omicron virus causes less severe disease than previous versions. However, they are cautiously optimistic. While it is more visible than other variants of the virus, experts think that it may also prove to be shorter.
South Africa believes its omicron wave has peaked, for example, and London — where omicron cases surged in December before the variant really took hold in the rest of Europe — may be seeing cases starting to plateau, according to experts, fueling hope that the omicron wave could soon peak elsewhere too.
Omicron “may have peaked”
South Africa’s government issued a statement on Dec. 30It stated that there had been a 29.7% drop in new cases in week ended Dec. 25, (89,781 new cases) compared to the previous week’s (127,753).
The statement stated that all indicators suggested the country might have reached the peak of the fourth waves at a national scale. Cases declined in every province except for the Western Cape and Eastern Cape which saw increases of 14% & 18% respectively.
However, admissions to hospitals have decreased in all provinces, except the Western Cape.
The omicron variant of the virus is transmissible and has seen lower hospitalisation rates than previous waves. The country is able to admit patients for basic health care even though it has little capacity. In all provinces, there is an increase in death.
Flash flood of infection
South Africa was the first country to discover the variant omicron and alert the World Health Organization. The World Health Organization designated the highly mutated strain as “variant of concern.” on Nov. 26.
Research from South Africa shows that people who are infected by omicron have milder symptoms than the globally predominant delta variant. Omicron is much more common, but this could lead to more strain on the health system.
South African doctors first identified omicron in 2004. they observed that their patients appeared to be experiencing milder illnesses more akin to a cold than the fluCovid strains before it were known to cause symptoms such as omicron. South African doctors discovered that most patients with omicron who were admitted to hospitals for treatment did so because they had not needed oxygen.
Other studyPublié in International Journal of Infectious DiseasesOn Dec. 28, it was reported that Tshwane, South Africa’s Gauteng Province where there were omicron cases in December surged in December, had seen an omicron wave in hospital admissions. This city saw a spike in hospital admissions “within four weeks” of the beginning of the outbreak. The hospital admissions increased quickly and started to fall within 33 days.
Fareed Abdullah, director of AIDS and tuberculosis research for the South African Medical Research Council, likened the omicron wave of infections to a “flash flood” and described the speed of the omicron wave’s rise, peak and decline as “staggering.”
London: Be cautious
The U.K., like South Africa, has been closely watched as it was hit by an omicron infection epidemic in December. This happened before the variant reached the U.S. mainland Europe.
Omicron infection rates in London, the capital of the United Kingdom, rose sharply in December. However there is evidence that these cases have begun to slow down. This suggests that an omicron wave may be more severe than previously thought.
Neil Ferguson is an Epidemiologist from Imperial College London. He said that while he believes that London’s 18-to-50 age group has seen a plateau in infection rates, it’s still too early to tell if that’s the case.
He noted that there may be a change in patterns in hospitalizations, echoing the warnings of other officials, who warned that U.K. hospitals will come under greater stress over coming weeks. Ferguson also mentioned that “we might see high levels for several weeks.”
New infections tend to cause hospitalizations and death by weeks. However, the U.K. has a widespread Covid vaccine program that helped keep deaths and admissions far below those of the original pandemic. It remains to be determined if South Africa’s experience with omicron can be compared to the U.K., due the differences in the demographics and vaccine coverage, as well as the immunity levels of the population.
CNBC’s Lawrence Young told CNBC Tuesday that while it appeared that London cases were plateauing in 18-50 years, Warwick University’s professor of molecular pathology said this. However, the next few weeks are crucial for determining how the current omicron crisis will unfold.
He noted that the issue is spreading to older generations, likely due to mixing during holidays. This will result in more serious outcomes and hospitalisations as well as “more infections in young school-age children.” [that]This will allow us to increase our case numbers even further.”
The rapid spread and immunity of the omicron, along with the high number of people infected will mean that there are fewer cases than ever. Therefore, the case numbers should fall in the coming weeks. “This may not look like the sharp decline in South Africa, due to the different infection rates across the U.K. and the impact of variable restriction measures,” he said.
CNBC spoke with Danny Altmann, Professor of Immunology at Imperial College London on Tuesday. Altmann stated that South Africa’s omicron experience and data are cause for optimism. Also, Europe’s massive caseload of Omicron Infections in Europe isn’t translating to increased intensive care unit admissions, deaths or even more time, although it can take some time to get there.
According to Professor David Heymann of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, hospital admissions was the key indicator to monitor.
This coronavirus will, along with other coronaviruses in the future, be an endemic disease and will eventually cause the common cold. That’s because as the immunity within the population increases, and already the antibody levels in the U.K. are over 90%, once that occurs the virus is modified — it isn’t prevented from reinfecting or from infecting people who have been vaccinated — but it is being prevented from causing serious illness and that’s why watching hospital admissions is extremely important,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Wednesday.
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