Robin Paxton

(Reuters) – Kazakhstan’s most violent rebellion in its 30 year history of independence forced a drastic change in the rhetorical style of the Central Asian nation’s president. He is a linguist, who has built his career on diplomacy and not tough talk.

Kassym Jomart Tokayev, almost three years into his presidency, has demanded the intervention of Russia’s military alliance in order to end a nationwide rebellion he blamed upon foreign-trained terrorist gangs.

In a broadcast address, his words are more reminiscent of Nursultan Nazarbayev’s strongman speech than the diplomatic skills he has honed over a long career, which also includes time at the United Nations.

Tokayev risks provoking Moscow to intervene. This could also lead Tokayev to disrupt a balance act in Kazakhstan’s resource-rich Kazakhstan, where political and economic interests are balanced by China, Russia and the West.

Kate Mallinson (Central Asia specialist at Prism), a London-based consultancy for political risk and politics, said that although he is a highly educated technocrat, he’s also a product the system. It’s unlikely that he will act unilaterally right now.

Protests against the rise in price of liquefied petroleum gases sparked unrest in Kazakhstan. This former Soviet nation of 19million people quickly spiraled into violence, fueling deep-seated anger over thirty years of autocratic rule.

Tokayev has been challenged by violence since March 2019, when he succeeded Nazarbayev. He then won 71% of vote in the election that the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe criticised.

Tokayev (68), is an avid reader of fiction, and political memoir. He was the head of the National Table Tennis Federation for 13 years. Tokayev has recently been given the nickname “furniture” by his critics, which is a reference to the perceived lack of political change.

The acceptance by the entire government of his resignation and the immediate reverse of any reforms which had lifted price caps on propane and butane — also known as ‘road fuels of the poor’ — were not enough to placate growing public outrage.

Tokayev, in an apparent conciliatory move, assumed the leadership of the powerful Security Council. He removed Nazarbayev from the position, making it appear that Tokayev, an 81-year old former leader, still has enormous influence.

The spokesman continued by saying that Almaty’s residents were the victims of terrorist attacks and that “terrorists and bandsits” had attacked it. It was also his duty to “take all measures possible to protect our state.”

UPSETTING THE BALANCE

Tokayev, who was the son of World War II vet and later detective-fiction author, was born at Almaty in 1953. His mother worked in a foreign language teacher-training institute, according to a biography on the presidential site http://www.akorda.kz.

Following his graduation from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, the Soviet Embassy in Singapore, and then Beijing were the first assignments for him. He perfected Mandarin by learning the language. His native Kazakh is also his second language.

Two times he was Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister. He also served as director-general at the UN Office in Geneva from 2011 to 2013.

Once, he was proud of Nazarbayev because he rejected an offer from Muammar Gadafi to create the world’s first nuclear bomb “Muslim”. He used the Soviet Union-bequeathed arsenal to Kazakhstan. The weapons were instead given to Kazakhstan.

However, his call for intervention by the Collective Security Treaty Organization CSTO – a military alliance among Russia, Kazakhstan, and four other ex Soviet countries – threatens a meticulously choreographed geopolitical neutrality.

Mallinson said that this could incense further protesters.

She said, “Asking to be granted CSTO forces undermines one the greatest achievements Nazarbayev in his 30-year tenure: To entrench Kazakhstani sovereignty and balance foreign relations among the West and Russia,”

He will be resentful to so many sections of an increasingly nationalistic populace that it is difficult for him to win.”