Ju-min Park and David Brunnstrom

TOKYO/WASHINGTON, (Reuters) – The issue of Japan’s security at a time when tensions are rising over Taiwan will likely be a prominent topic at a meeting between foreign and defense ministers from Japan and the United States on Friday.

These so-called “two-plus two” talks will be held a day after Japan and Australia signed a defense cooperation pact. They also come amid growing concerns about China’s economic and military might.

As China intensifies military and diplomatic pressures to claim its territory, Taiwan which is democratically run has seen tension rise over the last two years.

A Japanese official from the foreign ministry stated that the ministers were expected to discuss security cooperation in the area. This was before the talks began.

This would include the cooperation between Australia and Australia, which both countries pursue.

Japan has a policy of “one China”, and seeks to reconcile its relations with China’s neighbor and military ally, the United States.

According to IMF data, China is Japan’s number one export destination. It accounted for $141 billion of Japan’s 2020 exports.

However, Japan has enjoyed a strong relationship with Taiwan in the recent past on a mostly non-governmental basis. There has been growing discussion among security professionals and politicians about whether Japan should be involved in case China ever takes military action against Taiwan.

Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/former-pm-abe-says-japan-us-could-not-stand-by-if-china-attacked-taiwan-2021-12-01 said last month that Japan and the United States could not stand by if China attacked Taiwan, in remarks that drew a rebuke from Beijing.

Japanese and U.S. armed forces have drawn up a draft plan for a joint operation in the event of an emergency over Taiwan, Kyodo news agency has reported https://www.reuters.com/world/china/japan-us-draw-up-joint-operation-plan-any-taiwan-emergency-kyodo-2021-12-23.

Kyodo indicated that the two-plus-2 talks on Friday could lead to allies agreeing for formalisation of their efforts in the Plan’s implementation.

A Japanese official in the foreign ministry refused to comment.

In October, Japan’s government signalled a more assertive line https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/biden-promised-us-commitment-defending-senkaku-islands-japan-pm-kishida-2021-10-05 on China’s posture toward Taiwan, suggesting it would consider options and prepare for “various scenarios”.

Experts said that they didn’t expect any major shift in Japan’s position on Taiwan anytime soon.

“The two-plus-two could be an opportunity to broadly speak about what Japan may be willing to do but that would never be acknowledged publicly if they did,” said Jeffrey Hornung, a Japanese security policy expert at the Rand Corporation, noting that both sides might want to maintain so-called strategic ambiguity.

Daniel Russel is a former U.S. top diplomat in East Asia, now working with the Asia Society. He said Japan needed to consider many factors when engaging in an emergency situation on Taiwan.

His statement was: “On the other hand, deterring Chinese aggressiveness and defending against relentless intrusions into Japanese-controlled waters are high priorities. As is standing alongside and supporting Taiwan’s democracy.”

“Countervailing Factors include domestic politics that are pacifist and legal restrictions (and) enormous economic interests in China.”