By Mark Trevelyan

(Reuters) – Russia’s President Vladimir Putin was caught in a sudden, violent situation in Kazakhstan. His attention had been elsewhere. This forced him to launch a military intervention which carries risks.

Putin committed Russian paratroopers to duty on Thursday in the framework of the peacekeeping force of former Soviet countries requested by Kazakh President Kassym Jomart Tokayev. This is the worst wave of unrest since Central Asia gained independence from Moscow, 1991.

Russian and Western analysts claimed that the Russian crisis wouldn’t shift Putin’s attention from Ukraine. He has forced Washington to negotiate by mobilizing thousands of Russian troops in support of what Kyiv & Washington believe could be an invasion within weeks. This is something Putin denies.

Kazakhstan is at best a temporary distraction for Russia as it prepares to start negotiations next week with the West over Russia’s demands for security assurances in order to safeguard it against what it considers to be threatening NATO behavior.

On Friday, Kazakh security personnel appeared to be asserting control after days of violence that erupted following protests over fuel prices.

However, there is still the possibility of more bloodshed.

In a broadcast address, Tokayev stated that the state will fight to the death against bandits and terrorists. He also said that he has issued “shoot-to-kill” orders to his security personnel.

It is unclear how large the task will be for the 2500 peacekeepers representing Russia, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, Kyrgyzstan, Kyrgyzstan, Kyrgyzstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and whether or not it can be accomplished in the timeframe intended.

Moscow is the most successful mission. When you enter, you appear strong in all visible areas and don’t have to do any work. Sam Greene is the director of King’s College’s Russia Institute.

He said that even an effective intervention might not be able to remove an unpopular government. It could also fuel anti-Russian sentiments and make it difficult for the unrest to stop.

Russia was probably aware of the possibility that failure to act might lead to worse outcomes, Greene explained.

ON A ROLL

The Kremlin has made a number of strategic decisions in the past Soviet countries since 2020, and there are potential benefits.

Belarus: It supported Alexander Lukashenko as the authoritarian leader of Belarus and has since used its territory and airspace in order to conduct high-profile military drills near NATO member states’ borders.

Putin in Caucasus negotiated a ceasefire for a war in 2020 between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He also sent peacekeepers into the area to make sure Russia would be the most important security player, even though Turkey and Iran compete for their influence.

Kazakhstan is now the ninth-largest oil exporter and world’s largest producer of uranium. In his Friday televised speech, Tokayev expressed gratitude to Putin for all his support.

Russia will win if they can settle down. This would be an important victory for Russia and show how vital it is.

Jonathan Eyal from the RUSI think tank in London stated that Putin could have an even greater advantage in relation to China by making Russia the security guarantor for Central Asian states. This is even though he can’t match Beijing in terms of economic influence.

Russia’s absolute control of security matters in Central Asia is a delight, Eyal said. Eyal said that Putin was a re-creator or the Soviet Union.

Putin can portray himself as somewhat more equal than the Chinese through this alliance. Putin has an alliance that the Chinese do not have. He is surrounded by countries who look up to him and consider him their greatest protector. This is something the Chinese lack. This is the position he longs for, even a role as a regional or global power.

Ukraine is, however, a bigger problem.

Kazakhstan might distract from Ukraine, at least temporarily. It’s certainly a grave crisis that should be given attention by the Russian side. Andrey Kortunov from Russia’s International Affairs Council said that he didn’t believe it would totally remove Ukraine.

“I consider this issue a top priority, and it will still be an issue they wish to discuss with Westerners regardless of the outcome in Kazakhstan.”