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Omicron, China slowdown, tapering, economist says

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A screen displays stock prices at a Tokyo brokerage on March 17, 2020.

Issei Kato | Reuters

Three major headwinds will hit Asian countries in the coming year, says Carlos Casanova, Senior Economist, Asia, Swiss Private Bank UBP.

“We are seeing rising cases of omicron. We have priced in slower growth in China at around 5%. And now, the Fed meeting minutes suggest that the pace of the tapering will be faster-than-expected,” he told CNBC “Squawk Box Asia” on Friday, adding that these factors “pose a threat for the region as a whole.”

The U.S. central banking spooked investorsLast week, after minutes December meeting Members who had signaled were prepared to tighten monetary policy more aggressivelyA lot more than we had previously anticipated.

It Federal ReserveIt indicated that it might be willing to raise interest rates and dial back its bond-buying program.

While Asia’s emerging markets are well positioned, they will be more impacted by these factors — especially if the Fed moves aggressively on the policy front, Casanova pointed out.

He said that there would be an increase in real rates between the emerging Asian markets and the U.S. He said that this could lead to more outflows from the region’s most vulnerable economies.

2013 saw the Fed trigger a “Red Alert”taper tantrumWhen it started to wind down its asset acquisition program. The panic of investors caused a spike in Treasury yields and led to a sell-off.

The result was that emerging markets in Asia experienced sharp capital outflows as well as currency depreciation. This forced the central banks of the region to increase interest rates to preserve their capital accounts.

Casanova stated that it all comes down to how the Fed decides to normalize its policy over the next few months.

He stated, “What we want to avoid is a scenario whereby they are more proactive and reduce their balance sheet while they implement three rate increases in 2022,” adding that this could potentially translate into further outflows to the region as well as deflationary pressures.

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